031
FXUS65 KFGZ 231003
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
305 AM MST Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A dry and breezy weather pattern will remain in place
across northern Arizona through Saturday, with the strongest winds
and potential for critical fire weather conditions on Friday. By
Sunday and into next week, high pressure will bring lighter winds
and a noticeable warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad trough of low pressure remains over the
western United States, with the bulk of the trough residing to our
north. This pattern will remain in place through Saturday, with a
few s/wvs increasing our daytime winds, especially on Friday. The
entire pattern becomes more progressive by Sunday and into next
week, with rebounding hghts and decreased winds as the gradients
weaken.

Southwest winds on Friday will likely just reach, or even exceed
Wind Advisory Criteria over parts of the LCR. However, widespread
Wind Advisory conditions are not expected. In addition, very low
afternoon relative humidity values will make for near Critical Fire
Weather conditions, although fuels remain suspect. For now, we will
hold off any headlines for Friday, but we are right around the 50
percent decision threshold for now. Thursday and Saturday feature
similar conditions, but wind speeds will not be as strong.

Higher hghts for next week will bring a warming trend, reaching
above normal by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

There is no precipitation in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 23/06Z through Friday 24/06Z...Winds
continue to decrease this evening generally around 10 mph. A few
localized areas are still seeing breezes near 20 mph, but that
will subside overnight. VFR conditions will mostly prevail except
for reduced visibilities near prescribed burns. Gusty SW winds
look to return after 16Z, with gusts near 25-30 kts. Calmer winds
forecast tomorrow night.

OUTLOOK...Friday 24/06Z through Sunday 26/06Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected throughout the outlook period, with reduced
visibilities near prescribed burns. Gusty SW winds expected each
afternoon, with lighter winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Mild temperatures and dry
conditions. Southwest winds 15-25 mph, increasing to 20-30 mph with
gusts 30-40 mph on Friday. Afternoon minimum RH values 10-20%. Near-
critical fire weather conditions are possible across northeastern
Arizona on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Warming temperatures and continued dry
conditions. West/southwest winds 15-25 mph on Saturday, subsiding to
around 5-15 mph for Sunday and Monday. Afternoon minimum RH values
15-25% on Sunday, then falling to 10-20% for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff