Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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094 FXUS65 KFGZ 181730 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1030 AM MST Sat May 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend and through much of the coming week. Look for gusty afternoon winds each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry weather disturbance. && .UPDATE...The ridge that has been over Arizona the past couple days is sliding eastward this morning as a weak trough approaches from the west. The trough will bring an increase in southwesterly winds today with gusts 25-35 mph, as well as push a batch of mostly mid and high clouds across the region. Otherwise it will be a warm and dry afternoon, no forecast updates are needed this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION /306 AM MST/...For today and Sunday, Warm daytime temperatures will continue. As the high moves eastward a long-wave trough will begin to build over the western states. The result will be strengthening pressure gradients for stronger winds and a distinct shift to a more southwesterly direction. Afternoon sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts near 35 mph are likely each day. It will remain dry. On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger short-wave trough will rotate through the western states long-wave pattern producing even stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting into the 40 to 50 mph range, especially from the Mogollon Rim northward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine for an environment conducive to rapid fire spread. By Tuesday there will be enough moisture and dynamic lift combined with cooling aloft associated with the short-wave trough for an outside chance of high based showers near the Arizona/Utah border. Elsewhere, dry. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday as the short-wave moves eastward. High temperatures will cool some by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to Sunday. From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based showers along the Arizona/Utah border. && .AVIATION...Saturday 18/18Z through Sunday 19/18Z...VFR conditions through the TAF period. West to southwest winds 10-20 kts will gust to 30 kts during the afternoon. Light winds return tonight into early Sunday. OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/18Z through Tuesday 21/18Z...VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts are expected on Sunday afternoon. Stronger winds are expected on Monday, with gusts 30-45 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry conditions will continue through the weekend. Look for southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values between 10-20%. Monday through Wednesday...Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of northern Arizona on Monday. Warm and dry conditions will continue with southwest winds 25-35 mph gusting to 40-50 mph on Monday. Winds will decrease to 10-20 mph for Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH values will range between 5-15% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...BAK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff