Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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885 FXUS64 KFWD 102116 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 416 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ /Today and Tomorrow/ A weak surface cold front moved through North Texas early this morning and has stalled over Central Texas. A few showers and storms have developed near the cold front in Central Texas with additional showers and storms ongoing over North Texas in the vicinity of the elevated cold front between the 950-850 mb layer. These trends (scattered popup showers and storms) are expected to continue through the afternoon and early evening, with hit/miss showers and storms expanding across most of the region later today. Instability is weak, with narrow CAPE profiles and meager lapse rates aloft. Moreover, there is very little deep-layer shear so the convective mode should remain unorganized with a very low threat of strong or severe storms. Our main concern will be bouts of heavy rain that may lead to flooding, particularly if it falls over locations that are already experiencing lingering flooding from earlier rain events. Most of the storms should dissipate within an hour or two of sunset this evening. Our attention will shift to the west where a MCS, or at least a disorganized cluster of storms, is forecast to develop near the New Mexico/Texas border this afternoon and move east across the state tonight. This system will be aided by a well-organized shortwave trough which should provide enough ascent to sustain convective activity through the night. The leading edge of this line should be aided by a decent cold pool that will eventually out-pace the shortwave trough by the time it approaches the I-35 corridor around sunrise (give or take a couple hours). This will leave our area under broad mid-level ascent with a stalled surface boundary from the early morning storms. Another day of scattered showers and storms is expected tomorrow, with initial convective initiation areas taking place near the stalled boundary and ahead of the shortwave trough. The addition of the shortwave trough will bring a little more mid and upper-level shear, ever so slightly nudging up the potential for a few strong storms in the afternoon. The additional cloud cover and precipitation will result in lower temperatures the next two days, with highs generally in the mid 80s, although a few sites across Central Texas will peak in the low 90s. Heat index values will peak in the upper 90s across Central Texas where dewpoints remain in the mid 70s during peak heating. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Through Early Next Week/ The slow-moving shortwave responsible for our current bout of unsettled weather will slide across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing one final round of showers and storms. While this will impart some directional shear, rather weak flow will maintain disorganized clusters. A few updrafts may be able to support small hail and an associated downburst, but the main concern with these plodding cells will be additional heavy rainfall reaggravating flooding issues. The trajectory of the feature will place the bulk of the activity in western portions of North Texas overnight into early Wednesday morning, then primarily across Central Texas during the daylight hours Wednesday. The event should come to an end in our southern zones by early Wednesday afternoon. A cut-off low that will spend most of the week spinning offshore of Southern California will finally move inland late in the week, eventually transiting the Rockies. This will tilt a ridge axis to our west into the Lone Star State, reducing cloud cover and steadily raising temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich Gulf moisture should keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values will approach 100 by late in the week. Tropical easterlies may introduce some sea breeze showers/storms by Sunday, but the bulk of the activity should remain to our southeast. The ridge will re- establish itself over the Southeast U.S. early next week, nosing an inverted trough into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Its associated daytime convection may reach as far as East Texas on Monday afternoon. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 113 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ MVFR ceilings currently blanket most of North Texas, but expect most of the ceilings to lift/scatter over the next 1-2 hours. A couple weak cold fronts (one over Central Texas and another over North Texas) has helped develop scattered showers/storms early this afternoon, with surface heating helping to develop additional storms through the afternoon. There is very little instability over the area so most of the storms should be short-lived and unorganized. Due to this and the hit/miss nature of the precip today, we were not confident enough to add on-station TS to the D10 TAFs...but did add a TS TEMPO at ACT with the front being closer to the terminal. Most of the storms will dissipate with the loss of heating this evening before a cluster of storms moves into the region from the west in the early morning hours. This should largely miss the D10 terminals but will likely move over ACT near/before sunrise. A leftover boundary will stall in the area, allowing for another day of popup showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 86 71 89 72 / 20 30 20 20 5 Waco 72 87 71 85 70 / 20 40 30 30 5 Paris 67 86 65 87 64 / 0 10 5 5 0 Denton 69 84 68 89 68 / 10 30 20 20 0 McKinney 69 86 68 88 68 / 10 20 20 20 0 Dallas 73 87 71 89 70 / 20 30 20 20 5 Terrell 71 86 68 87 68 / 20 20 20 20 5 Corsicana 73 88 72 87 70 / 20 30 20 20 5 Temple 72 89 71 87 71 / 20 40 30 40 5 Mineral Wells 70 85 69 88 69 / 20 50 40 20 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$