Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
807 FXUS64 KFWD 092234 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 534 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop along a southward moving cold front through sunset. A few of these storms will hold together as the front moves into the northern portion of the forecast area in the next couple of hours. However, coverage of storms will decrease with the loss of surface heating since convergence on the front will remain weak. Another area of storms, currently across the Concho Valley, will also weaken and eventually dissipate once the sun sets. We will maintain some low PoPs across the north, northwest and southwest zones tonight and slightly the higher chance PoPs on Monday. Other than some minor first period PoP adjustments, no significant changes are needed to the current forecast. 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ Seasonably hot and humid weather will prevail the rest of today before low storm chances arrive late this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front continues to sag southward towards the TX/OK border, and this boundary is likely to result in scattered convection during peak heating as destabilization occurs. Thunderstorms could affect our northern zones depending on how far south this front advances the rest of this afternoon, and a couple of strong storms with hail/wind threats can`t be ruled out. However, a lack of shear will tend to limit storm organization and strength. In addition, convection from an active West Texas dryline is also likely to spread eastward towards the forecast area overnight, some of which may spill into our northwestern zones tomorrow morning while simultaneously weakening. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing tomorrow morning across North Texas as the front slowly continues its southward advance. The overall environment will be unfavorable for severe thunderstorms, but can`t completely rule out some updrafts capable of hail with MUCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg above the frontal inversion. PW values will also be remarkably high, and any storms that do exist will be capable of brief heavy downpours. However, the potential for long-lived training thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall and flooding is rather low, and will once again be mitigated by a lack of shear to organize deep convection. Showers and storms will accompany the front southward into Central Texas during the afternoon, while perhaps a slightly more organized complex encroaches on the area from West Texas heading into the evening. With plenty of clouds present along with slightly cooler air behind the front, highs will only reach the mid 80s for most locations, with the exception of southern Central Texas where temperatures will climb to around 90 prior to the front`s arrival. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/ /Tuesday Through Next Weekend/ A shortwave trough will slowly transit the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. With the dissolution of the frontal boundary, outflow from earlier convection will be the main features to focus renewed development. A rather languid wind field will allow such boundaries to linger. While the disturbance aloft will introduce some directional shear, the flow will be seasonally subdued. This will both limit the severe potential and reduce the speed of individual cells. But there will still be enough instability and forcing aloft to allow for some strong or marginally severe storms, with hail and wind the potential hazards. Despite the directional shear aloft, the weak flow within the boundary layer should largely eliminate the tornadic potential. With considerable precipitable water values, slow-moving downpours could reaggravate flooding issues. The mid-week event will likely feature two main rounds: one driven by daytime heating Tuesday afternoon and a second resulting from nocturnal forcing within the core of the shortwave early Wednesday morning. Guidance is in better agreement with the timing and evolution of the feature, the downglide portion of which should be in place by midday Wednesday. Another extended rain-free period will begin Wednesday afternoon. A West Coast low will move inland late in the week and trek through the Rockies. The will cause the meridionally oriented ridge axis to our west to gain a positive tilt, nosing into the Lone Star State. This will reduce cloud cover and steadily raise temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich Gulf moisture should keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values will approach 100 by late in the week. Tropical easterlies may introduce some sea breeze showers/storms during the weekend, but the bulk of the activity should remain to our southeast. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Few to scattered daytime Cu will dissipate with the loss of surface heating, leaving only scattered to broken high clouds associated with dissipating convection to the west. A cold front, currently extending from West Texas to Southern Oklahoma, will move into North Texas this evening. The front will initially turn light south to southeast winds to the northeast. This should occur across the Metroplex TAF sites late in the evening, but not until closer to sunrise in Waco. Scattered thunderstorms, currently along the front, should dissipate for the most part with the loss of daytime heating, but additional showers and a few storms are expected on Monday. A lack of strong convergence on the front and limited large scale forcing for ascent should keep coverage isolated to scattered. Therefore, we will maintain VCSH or VCTS during the day Monday, but will not include any prevailing or even temporary periods for thunderstorms at the terminals. Post-frontal MVFR or even high end IFR stratus is expected overnight through Monday morning, but the low ceilings will gradually lift above 3000 ft during the afternoon. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 85 71 87 71 / 20 30 20 20 20 Waco 74 87 72 88 71 / 10 30 20 20 20 Paris 69 82 64 85 65 / 20 20 5 10 5 Denton 69 84 68 86 68 / 30 30 20 20 30 McKinney 71 84 68 86 68 / 30 30 20 20 20 Dallas 73 85 71 87 71 / 20 30 20 20 20 Terrell 72 85 68 86 68 / 20 30 20 20 10 Corsicana 74 88 71 88 71 / 10 30 20 20 20 Temple 74 90 71 90 70 / 10 20 20 20 20 Mineral Wells 71 84 69 88 69 / 30 40 20 30 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$