854
FXUS64 KFWD 121821
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
121 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Thursday/

This morning`s widespread showers and isolated storms that brought
heavy rain and flash flooding to portions of Central Texas have
finally dissipated. A few showers have developed in portions of
western North Texas, with a rather dense cumulus field evident
across nearly the entire area on visible satellite imagery. Given
we are still on the periphery of a departing upper level trough,
isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible across much
of the area through the afternoon. The potential for lightning
will remain low, but an isolated rumble of thunder can`t be
entirely ruled out. Fortunately, marginal deep-layer shear and
weak lift will keep any threat for severe weather very low, with
this activity dissipating by this evening.

Quiet weather is expected through the remainder of the period,
although we may have to contend with patchy fog early Thursday
morning. Otherwise, our warming trend continues tomorrow with
nearly all locations seeing afternoon temperatures in the low to
mid 90s with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Mid level ridging will be in place across the Plains by Friday
with a warm end of the week and weekend expected. A compact
shortwave trough will eject out of the Four Corners region and
into the Plains on Saturday which will dampen the ridging across
North Texas, but moisture will be limited and stronger forcing for
ascent will be well removed. While we may see a degree or two
shaved off of afternoon highs Saturday and Sunday, we`ll still be
well into the 90s.

The weakness in the ridging will persist into early next week
coincident with a westward moving inverted trough associated with
deeper tropical moisture. This feature will spread westward across
the Gulf around the periphery of strengthening ridging over the
southeast U.S.through Tuesday. As it does, a slug of 2.5"+ PWs
late Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday. This increased deep
layer moisture combined with typical afternoon heating should lead
to an appreciable increase in convection across southeast TX both
afternoons. While it remains to be seen whether any organized
tropical development can occur, there is certainly an increasing
probability that coastal showers/storms can push farther inland
both Monday and Tuesday. We`ll have generally low PoPs for now on
both days, mainly across our southeast counties, but we`ll
continue to monitor this feature over the coming days. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally run a few degrees above seasonal
norms through early next week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR with E to SE winds near 5 to 7 knots will continue through the
period. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible across
the region through the afternoon, but the potential for this
activity to impact any of the terminals is very low. Additionally,
any lightning threat associated with this activity will remain low
through the afternoon, with all showers and storms expected to
dissipate by the evening hours. Patchy fog may develop across
portions of the area early Thursday morning but is not currently
expected to impact the terminals.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    91  72  94  73  95 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                87  71  91  71  92 /  30   5   0   0   0
Paris               88  66  91  68  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  69  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  69  92  69  94 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              90  71  94  72  95 /  20   0   0   0   0
Terrell             91  68  92  68  93 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           89  71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0   0   0
Temple              85  71  92  71  93 /  50   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       88  70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$