540
FXUS64 KFWD 091031
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
531 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No significant changes needed to the current forecast. A cold
front continues to make southward progress through Oklahoma this
morning and will approach the Red River this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely stay mainly to our north today, but a
few isolated storms may make it across the river this evening.
PoPs will generally remain 10-20%. This front will provide a
focus for additional scattered storms on Monday.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Monday/

A slow moving upper trough is over northern Baja California
tonight with high level moisture spreading east across Texas. This
is resulting in a scattering of high cloud cover across the
region. Southerly winds around 10 mph will continue with an
overall warm night expected. Lows will only drop into the mid 70s.

On Sunday, mid level ridging will continue to be shunted eastward
a bit as a weak cold front slides southward through the Plains.
This frontal boundary is currently draped across the KS/OK border
and is providing a focus for thunderstorms tonight. This
thunderstorm activity will remain well removed from our area until
late Sunday night when the frontal boundary pushes south of the
Red River. While a few storms may linger into the overnight hours,
weak mid and upper level winds should inhibit a more organized
complex of storms. Nonetheless, we`ll have 20-30% PoPs after
midnight across our far northern counties.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will become more diffuse, but
should generally be located somewhere along or just south of I-20.
Low and mid tropospheric flow will be very weak with only subtle
disturbances spreading through the Plains, but modest instability
will be in place across North Texas. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the remnant
frontal boundary during peak heating. Widespread severe weather is
unlikely, but the strongest storms could produce some low end
severe wind gusts or hail. Temperatures will be several degrees
cooler given the increase in cloud cover and rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 249 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/
/Monday Night through Saturday/

A relatively active pattern is expected through the first half of
the week with periodic thunderstorm chances through Wednesday.
Scattered afternoon convection on Monday should be in the
dissipation phase by late Monday evening with a loss of daytime
heating leading to a fairly quiet night with slightly cooler
overnight lows in the 60s and lower 70s. By Tuesday, an upstream
shortwave will move out of the Four Corners region and into the TX
Panhandle. Model guidance has been fairly consistent with a semi-
organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing across
southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas during the afternoon hours
and spreading southeast with time. This will likely represent our
greatest chance for rainfall over the coming days as there will
be modest synoptic scale forcing for ascent along with what
remains of our lingering frontal boundary. Mid level lapse rates
are weak during this time and deep layer shear is modest at best
which suggests that the overall severe weather threat is low. With
PW`s in excess of 2 inches though, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible which could aggravate flooding issues in areas that have
recently received heavy rainfall.

The upper disturbance will quickly move southeast of us by late
Tuesday and most of the thunderstorm activity should wane by
evening. Upper ridging will build in again from West Texas
starting on Wednesday, but lingering moisture and strong
afternoon heating could lead to an additional round of scattered
thunderstorms, mainly along and east of I-35. Afternoon highs will
be tempered a bit by increased cloud cover and rain chances
Tuesday and Wednesday, topping out in the mid and upper 80s.
Stronger ridging will build back into the area toward the end of
the week into next weekend and high temperatures will climb back
into the low to mid 90s with no additional thunderstorm activity
expected.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail today outside of a brief period of MVFR around
Waco this morning. Southerly winds around 10 kt will become more
easterly late this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
This front will likely move through the D10 airspace this evening
with a wind shift to the north-northeast around 5-10 kt. While we
can`t rule out a few scattered thunderstorms this evening north of
the major airports, coverage will increase a bit on Monday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  73  88  71  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
Waco                91  75  89  72  88 /   0   5  20  10  30
Paris               91  70  82  65  85 /   0  20  20   5  20
Denton              94  70  86  69  86 /   0  20  20  20  40
McKinney            93  71  86  69  86 /   0  10  20  20  30
Dallas              94  73  87  71  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
Terrell             91  72  87  69  87 /   0   5  20  10  30
Corsicana           92  75  90  72  89 /   0   5  20  10  20
Temple              93  74  91  71  91 /   0   5  20  10  20
Mineral Wells       95  72  89  70  88 /   0  20  20  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$