306
FXUS64 KFWD 081705
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1205 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday/

Seasonably hot and rain-free weather will persist through the
rest of the weekend. An upper ridge will remain anchored overhead
today and during the daytime tomorrow before breaking down
heading into early next week. Despite highs in the mid and upper
90s and heat index values approaching triple-digits, a decent
southerly breeze of 10-20 mph and some higher gusts will help to
offset the otherwise unpleasant June heat. Winds will be lighter
tomorrow though, as a slow-moving frontal boundary sags southward
towards North Texas late in the day. A rather active radar
presentation may exist to our west and north as both this frontal
boundary and a West Texas dryline become convectively active.
However, thunderstorm chances will not return to our forecast area
until later tomorrow evening/night which is addressed in the long
term portion of the forecast.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/
/Sunday Night through Friday/

The aforementioned cold front will continue to sag south across
the Red River late Sunday night into Monday with an increase in
scattered showers and storms expected. Activity right along the
front will likely diminish in coverage and intensity through the
night while a complex of storms may be ongoing across far West
Texas. This activity would likely dive southward into a pool of
untapped instability and generally remain to our west. We`ll show
some increasing PoPs late Sunday night across our western counties
to account for this. On Monday, the frontal boundary should be
draped somewhere near the I-20 corridor, but mid and upper level
winds will be weak and there doesn`t appear to be any appreciable
large scale forcing for ascent. That being said, PWs will approach
2" and easterly low level flow through about 800 mb should result
in a weakly capped environment. This should support at least
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the frontal boundary. Better storm chances may actually occur late
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the global guidance suggests a modest
shortwave will spread southeast through the Southern Plains.
While the coverage of storms remains a little uncertain, strong
afternoon instability should lead to a cluster of thunderstorms
developing near the lingering frontal boundary and weak surface
low off to the northwest. This activity would spread southeast
into the region Tuesday evening/night. For now, we`ll have PoPs at
30-40% for this timeframe, but these may need to be increased in
future updates. Temperatures will remain suppressed a bit Monday
and Tuesday with increased cloud cover and rain chances, but
ridging will begin to overspread the region Wednesday through
Friday and we`ll see a corresponding increase in afternoon high
temperatures.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18z TAFs/

VFR will prevail the rest of today and tonight, with perhaps a
brief intrusion of MVFR stratus at Waco early tomorrow morning.
These cigs are currently forecast to remain south/southeast of
the D10 airports. A southerly breeze of 10-20 kts and some higher
afternoon gusts will eventually wane this evening, with lighter
speeds around 10 kts expected for Sunday.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  74  93  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30
Waco                93  73  91  74  89 /   0   0   0  10  20
Paris               92  72  91  70  83 /   0   0  10  10  30
Denton              95  72  93  70  86 /   0   0   5  20  30
McKinney            94  72  92  70  86 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dallas              96  73  94  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30
Terrell             92  71  91  71  87 /   0   0   0  10  30
Corsicana           94  73  92  74  90 /   0   0   0   5  20
Temple              94  72  93  73  90 /   0   0   0   5  20
Mineral Wells       97  72  95  71  88 /   0   0   5  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$