Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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854 FXUS64 KFWD 121821 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 121 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Thursday/ This morning`s widespread showers and isolated storms that brought heavy rain and flash flooding to portions of Central Texas have finally dissipated. A few showers have developed in portions of western North Texas, with a rather dense cumulus field evident across nearly the entire area on visible satellite imagery. Given we are still on the periphery of a departing upper level trough, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible across much of the area through the afternoon. The potential for lightning will remain low, but an isolated rumble of thunder can`t be entirely ruled out. Fortunately, marginal deep-layer shear and weak lift will keep any threat for severe weather very low, with this activity dissipating by this evening. Quiet weather is expected through the remainder of the period, although we may have to contend with patchy fog early Thursday morning. Otherwise, our warming trend continues tomorrow with nearly all locations seeing afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/ /Thursday Night through Tuesday/ Mid level ridging will be in place across the Plains by Friday with a warm end of the week and weekend expected. A compact shortwave trough will eject out of the Four Corners region and into the Plains on Saturday which will dampen the ridging across North Texas, but moisture will be limited and stronger forcing for ascent will be well removed. While we may see a degree or two shaved off of afternoon highs Saturday and Sunday, we`ll still be well into the 90s. The weakness in the ridging will persist into early next week coincident with a westward moving inverted trough associated with deeper tropical moisture. This feature will spread westward across the Gulf around the periphery of strengthening ridging over the southeast U.S.through Tuesday. As it does, a slug of 2.5"+ PWs late Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday. This increased deep layer moisture combined with typical afternoon heating should lead to an appreciable increase in convection across southeast TX both afternoons. While it remains to be seen whether any organized tropical development can occur, there is certainly an increasing probability that coastal showers/storms can push farther inland both Monday and Tuesday. We`ll have generally low PoPs for now on both days, mainly across our southeast counties, but we`ll continue to monitor this feature over the coming days. Otherwise, temperatures will generally run a few degrees above seasonal norms through early next week. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR with E to SE winds near 5 to 7 knots will continue through the period. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible across the region through the afternoon, but the potential for this activity to impact any of the terminals is very low. Additionally, any lightning threat associated with this activity will remain low through the afternoon, with all showers and storms expected to dissipate by the evening hours. Patchy fog may develop across portions of the area early Thursday morning but is not currently expected to impact the terminals. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 72 94 73 95 / 20 0 0 0 0 Waco 87 71 91 71 92 / 30 5 0 0 0 Paris 88 66 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 92 69 93 70 95 / 20 0 0 0 0 McKinney 92 69 92 69 94 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dallas 90 71 94 72 95 / 20 0 0 0 0 Terrell 91 68 92 68 93 / 20 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 89 71 93 71 95 / 20 0 0 0 0 Temple 85 71 92 71 93 / 50 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 88 70 93 70 95 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$