Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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935 FXUS64 KFWD 060821 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 103 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/ /Today through Friday Afternoon/ The weak front that pushed through behind Wednesday morning`s MCS continues to be stalled, draped across Central Texas. With surface winds becoming light across the region, this boundary can be seen by a sharper dewpoint gradient: 60s to the north and 70s to the south. Calm winds and generally clear conditions will persist through this morning as a surface ridge stays planted across the Ark-La-Tex, allowing efficient radiational cooling to take place. Expect temperatures to be able to bottom out mainly in the 60s. These aforementioned conditions, coupled with lower dewpoint depressions and antecedent saturated soils, will allow for the formation of patchy fog through mid-morning. This will be especially true for areas near and east of I-35, where the most recent rainfall fell. Overall, a dry and quiet forecast is in store for North and Central Texas to end out the week as upper level ridging builds in. However, a cold front will advance south through the Central Plains as its upper level support moves into New England. The front should make it into Oklahoma today. While subsidence from the aforementioned ridge should stunt much convective initiation, a subtle shortwave disturbance rounding the periphery of the ridge will allow for isolated storms chances to develop to our northwest this afternoon. Have retained low 20% or less PoPs for our northwestern counties this afternoon for the potential for a stray shower/storm. Otherwise, expect a warm afternoon with highs in the 90s region-wide. The front will stall before making it south of the Red River on Friday, and will eventually be ushered north as a warm front. Another impulse rounding the ridge will allow for the potential for rain/storms near the front, but expansive dry air underneath the mid-level moisture and overall subsidence will keep most dry on Friday as well. Have persisted with low chance PoPs along the Red River as some guidance continues to show light precipitation echoes during this time. Prater && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /This Weekend and Next Week/ Mid-level ridging will dominate the pattern this weekend, allowing for hot and mainly rain-free conditions to prevail. Saturday should be the warmest day with most of the area climbing to the mid 90s. Although a stiff southerly breeze will provide some relief from the heat, dew points in the low 70s will result in heat index values in the 100-105 range. A weakness in the ridge, digging shortwave trough, and a weak cold front moving into the area will open the door for a short- lived period of more active weather late this weekend into early next week. Northwest flow aloft should return by Sunday and open the door for additional overnight/early morning MCSs to move into the area, mainly Sunday and Monday nights. The ensemble mean guidance is indicating a resurgence of mid-level ridging over West Texas in the middle to late parts of next week. While most guidance keeps weak northwest flow over North Texas, the dominance of the high to our southwest should nudge the MCS activity further north with only a 10% chance of thunderstorm chances continuing beyond Tuesday morning. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /Issued 103 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ A much quieter night is expected with light/variable winds and VFR prevailing at all TAF sites. There is potential for patchy mist/fog to occur after midnight into the mid-morning hours thanks to the aforementioned conditions and antecedent soil moisture/rainfall. Guidance is not showing much of a reduction in visibilities, so have kept 6SM for now until we see how observational trends occur. Winds will eventually settle out of the ESE-SE later this afternoon and will prevail through the rest of the period. Some mid-level cloud cover is possible later this (Thursday) evening, but will not cause flight/operational impacts. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 73 94 76 96 / 0 5 5 0 0 Waco 93 70 93 74 94 / 0 0 5 0 0 Paris 91 69 89 71 91 / 0 5 20 0 0 Denton 94 70 93 75 94 / 0 10 10 0 0 McKinney 93 70 92 74 94 / 0 5 10 0 0 Dallas 96 72 94 76 96 / 0 5 5 0 0 Terrell 91 70 92 73 93 / 0 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 93 71 94 74 92 / 0 0 5 0 0 Temple 94 70 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 96 70 95 73 96 / 0 10 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$