214
FXUS64 KFWD 112013
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
313 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 107 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/
/Today and Wednesday/

A decaying complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move
east/southeast. While this activity will gradually dissipate over
the next few hours, a reinvigoration of showers and storms is
expected along any outflow boundaries through the afternoon as
surface heating results in further destabilization. Strong
subsidence will keep much of the Metroplex and areas further west
quiet, with additional development likely concentrated in
northern parts of the Metroplex and eastern North Texas, as well
as portions of Central Texas. Coverage should remain fairly
scattered with this afternoon`s activity, and the severe threat
will be low given marginal deep-layer shear. However, we can`t
rule out an isolated strong or marginally severe storm capable of
producing 1" hail and strong wind gusts. The best potential for an
isolated severe storm will be across Central Texas.

Since much of the afternoon convection will be diurnally-driven,
showers and storms will wane near sunset with the loss of daytime
heating. A brief lull is expected overnight, but with an upper low
remaining overhead, additional scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop late tonight and continue through Wednesday
morning. While most of this activity will remain across Central
Texas, latest CAMs are depicting some development further north
(including the Metroplex). Storm chances will be lower as we head
into Wednesday afternoon, but we can`t rule out a few additional
diurnally-driven showers and storms for the remainder of the day.
10% PoPs were introduced for most of the area to reflect this
potential. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a bit warmer than today
but still near-average by mid-June standards, with afternoon highs
in the mid to upper 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday through next Tuesday/

A relatively dry and seasonably warm pattern will persist across
the region from the middle of this week through the early portion
of next week.

In the near-term, a compact upper level ridge centered over
northern Mexico will expand in coverage across the Southern
Plains. Subsidence associated with this high will produce mostly
clear skies, an absence of precipitation, and most significantly,
an increase in daytime temperatures as we reach the latter
portion of the workweek. Many locations will see afternoon highs
in the mid 90s by Friday, a marked increase from the cooler
readings experienced early this week. Fortunately, daytime
dewpoints should remain in the 60s for the most part, limiting any
extremes in heat index values.

The axis of the upper ridge will become elongated more west-east
and shift just south of our area by the weekend. In addition, a
distinct weakness in the ridge will emerge as a vigorous
shortwave trough zips out of the Rockies across the Central
Plains. Large-scale subsidence should diminish accordingly, but
given abundant insolation, believe highs should still manage to
reach the mid 90s in many areas both days.

The weakness in the ridge should linger into the Monday-Tuesday
timeframe, coupled with the evolution of a weak inverted trough
extending from the western Gulf into Southeast Texas. Scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this trough will
tick up across East/Southeast Texas by Monday afternoon. Some of
this precipitation may build into our southeast counties during
the afternoons, and this is reflected in low end chance PoPs
depicted both days. Otherwise, daytime highs in the lower to
middle 90s will remain the rule areawide through Tuesday - just a
touch above seasonal norms for mid-June.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 107 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

A decaying complex of storms continues to move east and should
dissipate over the next few hours across North Texas. Additional
showers and storms are expected to develop along any lingering
outflow boundaries this afternoon, but this activity is expected
to remain north and east of the terminals. Confidence is not
particularly high with precisely where storms will develop, but
we`ll be monitoring trends closely and will adjust the TAF as
necessary. The potential for additional development of showers and
storms across Central Texas warranted maintaining VCTS in the
KACT TAF through the evening.

We`ll have to monitor for another round of convection late tonight
into Wednesday morning. At this time, most of the convection is
expected to remain across Central Texas, but there are some
indications of development further north (including D10). VCTS was
introduced to the KACT TAF late tonight, but confidence was too
low to include in the D10 TAFs at this time.

MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely again Wednesday morning, and MVFR
ceilings are now advertised in the KACT TAF. Held off on including
a mention in the D10 TAFs for now given uncertainty is high.
Otherwise, light E to SE winds near 5-7 knots or less will
continue through the period, outside of any nearby thunderstorms.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  90  72  93  73 /  30  10   0   0   0
Waco                71  88  71  91  70 /  30  30   0   0   0
Paris               65  88  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              68  89  69  92  68 /  30  10   0   0   0
McKinney            68  89  68  92  68 /  20  10   0   0   0
Dallas              71  89  71  93  70 /  30  10   0   0   0
Terrell             68  89  68  91  68 /  20  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  89  71  93  70 /  30  20   0   0   0
Temple              71  89  71  92  71 /  30  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  89  70  94  70 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$