563
FXUS64 KFWD 110956
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
456 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A thunderstorm complex over the Texas South Plains will arrive at
our western border around 9 AM on its current path. Convection may
weaken thereafter, but additional development is likely farther
east this afternoon as the upper low responsible for the
precipitation arrives. The ongoing forecast is on track, with the
best rain chances still expected across the western zones today,
and southern zones on Wednesday.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

A weak front will remain somewhat stationary south of the region
for the next few days, keeping temperatures slightly below normal
in the near-term. Afternoon highs in the 80s can be expected
Tuesday with a light east to northeast breeze. Wednesday will be a
touch warmer as the front becomes diffuse and southeast winds
return.

The main weather feature of note is an upper low currently
spiraling over the Texas Panhandle. This system will move
southeast from the Panhandle into western portions of North Texas
during the day Tuesday, generating a round of scattered showers
and thunderstorms across parts of the region. The best rain
chances will be along and west of I-35 in the vicinity of the
upper low, though slight chance POPs will extend across the
eastern counties where more isolated convection may occur. Storms
should peak in the afternoon during maximum instability, a few of
which may be strong with gusty winds, small hail and heavy rain.
Weak flow aloft and a lack of appreciable deep layer shear will
keep the severe threat in check, though an isolated storm or two
may over-achieve and produce quarter sized hail and a damaging
wind gust. Slow storm movement may also lead to localized
flooding.

Activity will wane Tuesday evening with the loss of instability.
The low will drop south through Central Texas Tuesday night and
Southeast Texas on Wednesday as a mid level ridge re-strengthens
over the southern Rockies, shifting most of the precipitation
south of the forecast area on Wednesday. However, chance POPs will
remain in place for areas generally south of I-20 where diurnally
driven convection may still occur on the northern flank of the
upper low.


30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 215 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

Mid level ridging will build into the Southern Plains through the
latter half of the week leading to a generally tranquil period
with temperatures warming back into the mid 90s each afternoon.
Dewpoints should mix into the low/mid 60s Thursday through
Saturday which will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to
near 100 degrees. Otherwise, a slow moving upper low off the
California coast will spread across the Four Corners region and
into the Central Plains over the weekend. While this will put a
dent in the building ridge, the stronger forcing will remain well
to our north with little chances for additional precipitation.

As mid level ridging builds over the southeast U.S. early next
week, modest tropical easterly flow will send a slug of 2.5"+ PWs
westward across the Gulf tied to an inverted mid level trough.
This feature will likely spread into southeast Texas late Monday
and could result in an uptick of scattered tropical showers and
thunderstorms that may make it into parts of our east and
southeast counties. We`ll continue to monitor this feature over
the coming days.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings are expected this morning, followed by thunderstorm
chances this afternoon as an upper low moves in from the
northwest. Confidence is high enough to continue with VCTS for the
afternoon, but due to the scattered/disorganized nature of the
convection, will not include any TEMPO groups at this time.
Thunderstorms will dissipate shortly after 12/00Z.


30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  71  89  71  93 /  40  20   5   0   0
Waco                87  71  87  70  90 /  50  30  20   0   0
Paris               86  66  88  65  91 /  10   5   0   0   0
Denton              84  68  88  68  93 /  40  20   5   0   0
McKinney            84  68  88  68  92 /  30  10   5   0   0
Dallas              85  71  89  71  93 /  40  20   5   0   0
Terrell             85  69  88  67  91 /  30  10   5   0   0
Corsicana           87  71  88  70  92 /  40  20  10   0   0
Temple              88  71  88  70  92 /  40  30  20   0   0
Mineral Wells       83  69  88  69  93 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$