121
FXUS64 KFWD 131934
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
234 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/
/Today Through Friday/

A dominant upper level ridge will keep the weather quiet as we
close out the work week. As a result, it will be quite warm
across the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
both today and tomorrow. Dew points won`t mix out too much during
the afternoon hours, so heat index values will likely top 100
degrees for some locations. However, we are not expecting to meet
Heat Advisory criteria at this time. Patchy fog may develop
across portions of Central Texas and the Brazos Valley early
Friday morning. Otherwise, no notable weather (other than the
heat and humidity) is expected through the period.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night Onward/

Long story short:

Expect a quiet weekend before an unsettled pattern brings on and off
rain chances next week.

Short story long:

A closed upper low currently off the coast of SoCal will de-amplify
into an open shortwave as it moves onshore and towards the Central
Plains this weekend. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in
the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep
South in response. The shortwave will slowly move across the
Continental Divide early this weekend, but North and Central Texas
will remain dry as better moisture and lift remain displaced to the
north. A warm weekend is expected with afternoon temperatures in
the 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100-101.

Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find
themselves between a trough and a high place. We`ll continue to be
located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with
a longwave trough to our northwest. Moisture advection will
really increase beginning early in the week, ushering abundant
tropical moisture in the form of around 2" PWATs and 70s dewpoints
in to the region. While overall forcing will remain nebulous
without a direct focusing boundary/shortwave, diurnal heating will
allow for isolated-scattered showers and storms during the
afternoons on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across our east and
southeast zones. Isolated storm chances will expand region-wide in
the latter portions of this next week as the northern extent of a
tropical wave in the western GOM advances further inland. We`ll
continue to watch for more fine-scale details as they come in, but
threats of heavy rain and lightning will interrupt any outdoor
plans.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and light south to southeast winds below 10 knots will
continue through the period. No significant aviation concerns are
expected through Friday.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  95  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                73  96  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  94  69  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              72  94  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            71  94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              73  96  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  94  70  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  94  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  95  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  94  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$