373
FXUS64 KFWD 130459
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1159 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

A strong ridge aloft centered near El Paso will expand east across
Texas over the next few days, shutting off any convective attempts
across the region. Sunny days resulting from ridge-induced
subsidence will also generate a warming trend through the end of
the week. Highs in the lower to middle 90s can be expected today,
followed by widespread mid 90s on Friday, with low temperatures
climbing a few degrees each night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s will yield heat index readings around 100 each
afternoon. Fortunately it looks like conditions will at least
remain below Heat Advisory criteria as we round out the week.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 313 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024/
/Thursday Night through Juneteenth/

Key Messages:

1) Warm/Hotter Temperatures through next week with Heat Index
values in the upper 90s and around 100 degrees.

2) Low rain chances return Sunday and continue through mid week,
in particular across East and Central Texas.

Upper level ridging anchored across West Texas/New Mexico will
expand across the state late this week keeping warm conditions in
place. Over the weekend, a shortwave trough will move north of us
through the Plains, sparking a few rounds of convection, but any
storms are expected to remain north or northwest of our area.
However, we will still have to keep an eye on the movement of any
evening convection as the evening and overnight low-level jet may be
able to excite convection along any boundaries that race ahead of
evening complexes of storms, potentially bringing storms near or
into our far northwest counties. Again, the potential for this is
pretty low at this time, and PoPs are not mentioned in the
forecast Friday or Saturday. Otherwise, through Saturday, high
temperatures will be in the 90s with heat index values a few
degrees above measured temperatures.

By Sunday, the upper level ridge anchors over the southeastern
CONUS, opening our region to deep southerly flow that transports
humid air from the GOM into our area. Humidity will increase as a
result, resulting in afternoon heat index values closer to and
around 100 degrees through the middle of next week. With increased
moisture, the upper ridge to our east, and southwest flow aloft,
daily rain chances are also in the forecast Sunday through
Wednesday/Juneteenth. Low rain chances start in our southeastern
counties Sunday afternoon, and then expand north across East
Texas Monday and Tuesday. Coverage of storms is expected to be
isolated to scattered, and the main hazards with any storms will
mostly likely be lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall that
could cause flooding/flash flooding. More widespread storms could
occur on Wednesday, but we are still well a ways out from next
Wednesday for any confidence around the middle of next week.

JLDunn


&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Minor visibility reductions may occur at KACT Thursday morning,
otherwise a strengthening ridge aloft will provide VFR and quiet
aviation weather across the region. Winds will remain light
southeast through the end of the forecast period.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  94  75  96  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                73  93  73  95  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               67  91  69  94  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  94  71  96  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  92  71  94  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  94  74  96  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  92  70  95  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  93  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  93  73  94  71 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  93  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$