Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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123 FXUS63 KGLD 220742 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 142 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon and evening east of Highway 27 along a dry line. There is a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. - A cold front Thursday night could be accompanied by northwest winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph. - For the holiday weekend, expecting a chance for storms both Saturday and Sunday, with some severe storms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Zonal flow today will transition to southwest flow tonight. A couple of weak waves will move through tonight, but CAMs have gone dry and global models only show a few hundredths here and there. So will go with a dry forecast today and tonight. Skies will be mostly clear with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper low will move through Wyoming during the day on Thursday and into the Dakotas Thursday night. Surface low will develop in the Nebraska panhandle with front to the southwest and dry line trailing south into the forecast area. The dry line may be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon, roughly located between Highway 27 and Highway 25. The NAMnest is particularly aggressive with that scenario, but the HRRR less so. Along and east of the dry line the environment will be moderately unstable with deep layer shear of 25-30 kts. The parameters suggest some potential for severe storms with mainly a hail and wind threat. To the west of the dry line, elevated fire weather conditions will develop with relative humidity dropping into the teens and southwest winds gusting 20-25 mph. The cold front will surge southward in the late afternoon and evening hours and may be the focus for additional convective development. There will be a few hours of gusty northwest winds behind the front with models showing the potential for 40-50 mph gusts. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s and lows Thursday night in the 40s. Zonal to slight southwesterly flow continues on Friday. Another weak shortwave moves through in the afternoon/evening but models not doing much with it as for precipitation. Moisture will be very limited, dew points in the 30s, with little to no instability. Can`t discount and isolated shower or sprinkle, but most will be dry. High temperatures will be in the lower 70s and lows Friday night in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 152 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 From the latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF, there will be a couple easterly moving shortwaves this weekend which will bring chances for precip. Both of these will affect the CWA mainly during the afternoon hours into the evening. Going into the beginning of next week, amplified 500mb ridging will push east off the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will develop over Colorado and move east-southeast during the afternoon and evening hours through southern kansas this weekend. The system for Sunday does drop a bit further south than Saturday`s feature. Both days will see about 20- 40% chances for rw/trw, but Sunday will have better areal coverage of the CWA. GFS soundings do show better instability on Saturday for the eastern portion of the CWA, suggest some strong to severe storm potential. On Sunday around 00z Monday, weaker instability but inverted-V soundings are present w/ DCape around 900-1000j/kg suggesting winds could be main factor if storms develop. High pressure does nose south into the region behind the Sunday system for Monday, sliding east on Tuesday allowing for a couple warm and dry days. For temps, daytime highs this weekend will range from the mid 70s into the lower and some isolated mid 80s. Warmest areas will be south of the Interstate. Going into the beginning of next week, highs on Monday will range in the lower to mid 70s north of the Interstate, with mid 70s to around 80F south. On Tuesday, a tighter range is expected with a mix of upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will range from the mid 40s west into the lower to mid 50s east for each night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 945 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A northwest wind under 12kts at taf issuance will veer to the west at similar speeds through sunrise. During the daytime hours, winds continue to back to the south at speeds under 12kts through 22z. After 23z, southerly winds increase a bit into the 12-15kt range. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A west wind under 12kts at taf issuance will slowly back to the southwest by 21z, south by 00z, then southeast after 03z. Speeds generally under 12kts. Showers will be possible at or in the vicinity of the terminal from 06z-08z. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...99