479
FXUS63 KGLD 202052
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
252 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced Risk for severe storms this evening from Yuma County
  east along the Kansas and Nebraska border area. A Slight to
  Marginal Risk elsewhere. In the Enhanced Risk area, supercells
  capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging winds
  and tornadoes will be possible, with the risks elsewhere being
  large hail and damaging winds. Locally heavy rainfall and
  flash flooding will be possible in the Enhanced Risk area,
  mainly in southwest Nebraska. The severe risk will continue
  well into the overnight hours.

- Patchy frost possible in northeast Colorado late Tuesday night
  and early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Across the region this afternoon, with a low/front sitting over west
central Kansas, skies are mixed with sunny conditions west, and
partly sunny east due to a persistent veil of low cloud associated
with the vicinity of the low/front. Winds have shifted easterly from
the mornings northerly fetch, and temperatures as of 200 PM MDT are
ranging mainly in the 70s with some 60s due to extensive clouds.

Looking aloft, the latest RAP40 500mb analysis is showing broad SW
flow over the region, with a elongated trough pushing through the
north central Rockies. It will be this trough, via current guidance,
that swings off the Rockies and east-northeast into the north
central Plains this evening. This will be followed by a weaker
system on Tuesday with a more easterly track along the northern
fringe of the cwa.

For the short term period, the latest wx concerns continue to focus
on the threat for severe wx this afternoon/evening, flooding chances
later tonight into Tuesday morning. There are also chances
Tuesday/Tuesday night for another round of rain/thunder.

Currently, with a frontal boundary extending west from the central
Kansas area into central Colorado, this will be the focus for storm
initiation as the upper trough moves off the Rockies. Current
CAMs(HRRR, RAP and NamNest) show development around 00z Tuesday,
moving east through northeast Colorado, before shifting into SW
Nebraska this evening. Some differences as to the placement/movement
of the convection as it moves out of Colorado, but the overall trend
does impact SW Nebraska at the minimum. Threats do diminish as your
push southward through the cwa. Best chances look to occur along and
north of highway 36. SPC does continue to carry an Enhanced Risk for
Nebraska, tapering to a Slight Risk for severe for areas south of
this to Interstate 70, then Marginal concerns thereafter.

Model soundings show decent instability from 00z-06z Tuesday across
the Enhanced Risk area as SBCape/MUCape all reach into the 2000-
3000j/kg range. Hodographs do support tornado potential, but large
hail up to baseballs and winds up to 70-80 mph are possible,
especially north of the Interstate. Things do taper sharply the
further south you go away from the shortwave vicinity.

Other concerns through tonight will be the threat for flooding due
to heavy rainfall as the storms pass. We do have the Enhanced Risk
area under a Marginal for excessive rainfall. This will all depend
on storm speed through the area tonight. PW values do approach the 1-
1.3 inch range this evening as east-southeast flow persists. Have
continued the Flood Watch with the addition of Dundy county through
12z Tuesday.

Another round of rain is expected on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with
the passage of another shortwave. Surface low south of the cwa will
help funnel moisture into the area, with the focus along and north
of the Interstate. Currently instability is low so not expecting
severe storms at this time, but another round rain could impact
already prone areas. Another Flood Watch could be needed but will be
highly dependent on what is received tonight in certain areas.

The final issue in the short term will be the threat for patchy
frost Tuesday night. Guidance continues to show cloud cover
meandering over the expected impacted areas in Colorado. With the
uncertainty, have left out mention as temps into the upper 30s at
worst.

For temps, with a cold front moving through the region on Tuesday, a
wide range in daytime highs is expected with mid 60s to mid 70s
forecasted. Warmest locales will be along/south of Highway 40.
Overnight lows tonight expected to range widely with mid 40s to
lower 50s west, into the mid 50 through 60F east. A bit colder
Tuesday night, especially west of Highway 27, with a range from the
upper 30s west into the upper 40s east. The lows for tonight are
highly dependent on cloud cover from remnant storms through tonight.
Tuesday night, cloud cover will impact temps, especially for
northeast Colorado. Current guidance keeps frost chances low at this
time, but could encompass much of Kit Carson, Cheyenne and Yuma
counties if cloud cover clears out.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

From the latest GFS/ECMWF, west-southwest aloft at 500mb will
persist during the long term period, supplemented by the passage of
a few weak shortwaves through Friday with both models carrying a few
stronger system over the region for the upcoming weekend. The timing
of each system looks to occur during the evening hours at this time,
but can`t rule out some late afternoon development, especially this
weekend.

At the surface, inverted trough Wednesday evening will give way to a
stronger lee-side trough Thursday. while the placement west of this
system during the day will give the region decent above normal
warmth, this will sink south and east of the CWA Thursday night
into Friday. A low on the south side of the trough on Friday
remains over the OK Panhandle region for Saturday, followed by
another lee-side trough for the end of the upcoming weekend.

Looking for low chances(30-40%) for rw/trw in the Wed-Fri timeframe,
but it will be the weekend/early next week systems which will give a
better potential for areal coverage of qpf. Of course these will be
highly dependent on storm track timing through the CWA. With all the
rain expected before the midweek timeframe, additional qpf could put
more locales into flood prone status and will have to be monitored.

For temps, daytime highs on Wednesday will range in the lower to mid
70s. Warmest day in the extended will occur on Thursday with lower
to mid 80s expected. Thereafter, Friday will have another cooler day
with mainly 70s, increasing to a range from the upper 70s to mid 80s
by next Monday. Overnight lows will mainly range from the mid 40s
west into the lower and mid 50s east. Warmest locales will be
along/east of Highway 83.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Both sites have the potential to see convection occur later in
the forecast period. Timing of this will shift as the onset
occurs and updates sent as needed.

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions are expected through the
forecast period. There could be a period of MVFR conditions
from 02z-05z Tuesday with ceilings lowering as the potential
for VCTS increases. Winds will be veering through the period
with north 10-20kts through 20z, then shifting east-southeast.
By 09z Tuesday, becoming southwest around 10kts and eventually
north-northwest around 15-25kts from 12z onward.

For KMCK, a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings is expected through the
forecast period. 03z-07z Tuesday VCTS is possible along with
light to moderate rainfall. Visibility could drop into the
5-6sm range. Winds, mainly east-northeast 10-15kts through 13z
Tuesday then northwest 15-25kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...Flood Watch from 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening through late
     tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN