434
FXUS63 KICT 081137
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More strong to severe storms possible late this afternoon
  through tonight.

- Hot today, with a cool down Sunday through Tuesday.
  Temperatures warming near to above average once again by
  Wednesday and beyond.

- Off-and-on slight chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through
  next weekend, although predictability is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

THIS MORNING...A rather expansive MCS is exiting the region to the
east early this morning. In its wake, lingering hit-or-miss
showers/thunderstorms are possible for a few hours this morning
within a zone of persistent mid-level warm advection. Severe weather
is not expected with this activity.

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening frontal zone could be a focus
for a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over
southern Kansas. Despite strong heating well into the 90s, NIL upper
support and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could spell
capping issues, raising questions on whether or not storms will even
form. If storms are able to develop and sustain themselves, strong
instability and adequate deep layer shear would support severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

LATER THIS EVENING--OVERNIGHT...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado and
western Kansas late this afternoon within a region of upslope flow
along/north of the stationary low-level frontal zone. Very large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary concern with this
initial activity, with a gradual transition to damaging winds with
time further east as storms congeal into 1-2 expansive thunderstorm
complexes, aided by strong easterly inflow along/north of the
frontal zone. The combination of strong instability and increasing
effective deep layer shear will support the potential for a few
intense bow echoes capable of 60-80+ mph winds, especially over the
western half of Kansas, although severe storms could reach
as far as eastern Kansas.

SUNDAY--WEDNESDAY...A post-frontal airmass will likely support
slightly below average temperatures along with dry conditions
Sunday through Monday. For Tuesday, a meandering upper low could
bring a few showers/thunderstorms to the region, although it appears
better chances will be further south across Oklahoma. Temperatures
will be warming back up closer to normal levels by Wednesday.

THURSDAY--SATURDAY...Near to above normal temperatures are probable
late week into next weekend. Could be looking at a few chances for
thunderstorms as a frontal zone oozes south into Mid-America, along
with a few ripples in the upper flow. However, thunderstorm
predictability is low this far out with this type of summer-like
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the first 10 or so hours of this
TAF period. After 20Z this afternoon, the chances for showers
and thunderstorms will become an increasing possibility. KRSL
and KGBD are the most likely terminals to see thunderstorms with
wind gusts into 50kt range. KSLN, KHUT and KICT may also see
this type of activity but confidence is lower at this time.
Timing is difficult to pin down for this cycle so went with
PROB30s for the period of time where the strongest activity is
currently to mostly likely occur. KCNU is also expected to see
some thunderstorm activity but this activity is more likely to
be sub-severe but still likely to cause some issues.

After 08Z tonight, IFR CIGs are expected to push into the region
which are expected to remain through the end of this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ELM