256
ACUS11 KWNS 042317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042316
OKZ000-TXZ000-050115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 042316Z - 050115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with a potential for hail and
strong wind gusts, may continue for a few more hours across the
eastern Texas Panhandle. At this time, convective coverage is
expected to decrease in the mid to late evening. If it appears that
the convection will last longer than expected, then watch issuance
would need to be considered.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo
shows a widely-spaced line of strong thunderstorms over the central
and eastern Texas Panhandle. The convection is being supported by
lift just ahead of a vorticity max moving southeastward across the
Oklahoma Panhandle. The latest surface analysis has a 996 mb low
over northwest Texas with northerly flow located across much of the
Texas Panhandle. A corridor of locally higher surface dewpoints
extends westward into the northern Texas Panhandle, where the RAP is
estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In addition to the
instability, forecast soundings across the northeastern Texas
Panhandle have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, which could be
enough for a hail threat with the stronger cells. A few strong wind
gusts will also be possible. Cells are expected to persist for a few
more hours, but that the cap is expected to re-build into the
eastern Texas Panhandle by mid evening, causing convective coverage
to decrease.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35390184 35740183 36050146 36330083 36300038 36130002
            35749994 34939996 34440005 34370052 34510090 35070129
            35390184