044
ACUS11 KWNS 031916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031915
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Minnesota and portions of eastern Iowa
into western Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031915Z - 032115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong/locally severe storms are expected to evolve
with time near the Upper Mississippi River Valley, and spread
eastward/northeastward with time.  With the stronger storms expected
to remain isolated, and magnitude of risk likely to remain limited,
WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms developing from near the
southeastern Minnesota/Wisconsin border/Mississippi River southward
into northeastern Iowa.  The convection is occurring in an area of
heating/destabilization that is ongoing west of remnant
precipitation and associated cloud cover across central and eastern
Wisconsin.  While continued heating -- which has pushed mixed-layer
CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg -- will likely support additional
storm development, the deep-layer wind field only modestly
increases/veers with height.  This suggests mainly multicell
organization of the stronger updrafts, likely limiting overall
severe potential.  In addition, with storms tending to shift
eastward/northeastward into the more rain- and cloud-cooled airmass
with eastward extent, current expectations are that WW issuance may
not be required.

..Goss/Smith.. 06/03/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42189276 43409268 44369298 44969244 44779079 43468944
            42278875 41669039 41749205 42189276