210
FXUS62 KMLB 161501
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1101 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Low pressure northeast of the area designated as Potential
Tropical Cyclone 8 will move west-northwest, and is forecast to
make landfall along the South Carolina coast later today into
this evening. Frontal boundary connected to this system remains
across south central Florida, with a lighter northerly flow across
much of the region. Some moistening will occur today, with PW
values increasing to 1.6-1.9", so convective coverage should
increase slightly today from what occurred yesterday, with
scattered showers and storms developing into the afternoon and
evening with the inland moving sea breeze. PoPs range from 40-50
percent near to north of the I-4 corridor where moisture will be
greater and 30 percent farther south. Lingering dry air aloft and
cooler temps at 500mb (around -7 to -8C at 500MB) combined with a
passing mid level disturbance may lead to isolated stronger
storms capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind
gusts of 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s and peak heat index values of 98-104.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 744 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Stratus leading to some IFR/MVFR cigs and spots of MVFR
visibilities will continue through early this morning, primarily
near to north of a line from KMCO to KTIX. However, should see
gradually improvement back to VFR across these sites toward or
just after 15Z as this cloud deck lifts and breaks up with daytime
heating. Light morning flow will gradually transition onshore
along the coast in the afternoon. This NNE/NE flow will move into
the interior by late in the day or early evening. ISOLD-SCT
showers and lightning storms are forecast in the afternoon/early
evening, but not confident in any TEMPO groups just yet. Will
continue to handle with "Vicinity" wording for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Today-Tonight...Long period onshore swell from PTC8 will continue to
promote poor to hazardous boating conditions. Early morning
observations from NOAA Buoy 41009 and NOAA Buoy 41070 have shown
seas increasing near 7 ft, and the Small Craft Advisory across the
offshore waters has been expanded to include nearshore Volusia and
nearshore Brevard. Small craft should exercise caution across the
nearshore Treasure Coast. Seas are forecast to subside to 5-6 ft
nearshore late this afternoon, while hazardous seas of 7-8 ft
continue into the late evening offshore. Winds will remain light
throughout the day, generally remaining 10 kts or less. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are forecast.

Tuesday-Friday...Seas subside Tuesday, settling around 3-4 ft
Wednesday afternoon. Variable winds continue into late week while
remaining 10 kts or less. Scattered to numerous showers and
scattered lighting storms are forecast each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  90  73 /  40  20  40  20
MCO  90  75  92  75 /  40  20  50  10
MLB  90  76  90  75 /  30  20  40  30
VRB  92  75  90  74 /  30  20  50  40
LEE  89  73  90  74 /  50  20  30  10
SFB  89  73  91  74 /  40  20  50  10
ORL  90  75  92  75 /  40  20  50  10
FPR  92  75  90  73 /  30  20  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ550-
     552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
AVIATION...Sedlock