961
FXUS64 KOHX 020134
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
834 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Showers continue to dot the radar especially east of I-65 at the
moment. Additional shower activity will continue overnight before
beginning to shut off from west to east Sunday morning. Looking
at the current mesoscale environment, there`s not much in the way
of CAPE over our area. Looking west of the Tennessee River though,
500-800 J/kg of MUCAPE is present. Some of that instability will
slide east into our area through the nighttime hours. This could
lead to a rumble of thunder or two. Wind profiles are weak with
effective bulk shear less than 20 kts. Strong or severe storms are
not anticipated. The forecast is on track and only minor hourly
PoP adjustments were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

It`s a showery day across the mid state. It`s rather cool with temps
in the 60s. A mildly unsettled pattern appears to be ahead through
the short term period. Having said that, today appears to be the
most active of the days as a marginal risk is currently in place.
There does appear to be some reasonable shear although capes are
near zero right now. As activity decreases some by afternoon
instability could pick up a bit with perhaps some storms developing
later. I would not worry too much about it at this point.

Again, the upcoming pattern looks mildly unsettled.  A series of
weak shortwaves will traverse the area through Monday night. Pops
however will continue to run on the low side after today. Only
modest instability will pair with weak shear to keep us in the
general risk of storms. The 35KT mags at 850 mb today will drop to
near 10 kts for the next 2 afternoons. Capes will rise to near 1500
j/kg the next two afternoons. Forcing/organization is weak on Sunday
with micro ridging attempting to surface. A little higher with the
GFS pops on Monday afternoon with shortwave proximity improving. NBM
not biting on this, however, as the Euro deflects from this theme as
well. At any rate, qpf totals through Monday night look like up to 1
1/2 inches far west to 1/2 inch east.

For the near term temps, it will be just a touch on the warm side
with lows mid 60s and highs mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

In the extended forecast, a stronger frontal system and associated
shortwave is slated to push through on Wednesday afternoon. Thus, we
will see our shower and tstm chances increase by mid week. Good
instability is showing up but with just weak to moderate shear. The
system is not synoptically well formed and strong organization is
isolated. No outlook for now. Drier air will work in behind the
system for the end of the week.

For the extended temps, it will continue to run a degree or two
above normal until the end of the week. At that time, we will cool
down to a little below normal. GFS appears to be a little overly
aggressive with the troughing. Will lean toward the Euro/NBM
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Most of the earlier convection has either dissipated or moved
east of Middle Tennessee. There are some lingering showers, mainly
along the Cumberland Plateau, and also sporadic MVFR ceilings. A
surface boundary and weak upper trough are situated west of the
Mississippi River this evening. These will come through during the
next 18-24 hours, so until that time, we can expect scattered,
mainly light showers and perhaps a TS or two, as well as periods
of MVFR ceilings. We expect to scatter out from west to east by
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  85  66  87 /  50  30  10  20
Clarksville    65  84  64  86 /  50  10  10  20
Crossville     58  76  60  81 /  70  60  20  10
Columbia       65  84  64  86 /  60  20  10  20
Cookeville     62  78  62  83 /  70  60  20  10
Jamestown      59  76  60  82 /  70  60  20  10
Lawrenceburg   65  83  64  86 /  60  30  10  20
Murfreesboro   65  84  64  87 /  60  30  10  20
Waverly        65  84  64  86 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Rose