397
FXUS62 KTAE 061417
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Late-morning vapor and radar imagery depicts a mid-level
shortwave trough moving east across the MS Valley with attendant
broken lines of showers and thunderstorms. This activity
crosses the border from NWS MOB/BMX`s area of responsibility
within the next hr.

Per current SPC mesoanalysis, the environment is adequately moist
(1.6-1.8" Precipitable Water) and unstable (1500-3000 J/kg CAPE).
Additionally, the DCAPE ranges from about 800-1000 J/kg while
mid-level lapse rates are up to 7 C/km. These parameters support
the potential for several strong thunderstorms capable of gusty
winds, small hail, locally heavy rain, and frequent lightning.
Isolated severe gusts would not be surprising either.

Guidance continues to favor the best convective coverage from SW
to NE this afternoon. The main change to today`s forecast was
trimming back rain chances over Apalachee Bay where no convection
is evident and likely to remain minimal into the evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A 500 mb shortwave vorticity maxima currently over southern
Mississippi and Louisiana will dive southeast today towards the
Florida Peninsula. In doing so, there will be enhanced forcing for
ascent across the region given the differential vorticity advection
present. This combined with elevated PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 inch range
will lead to decent chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
today. PoPs are particularly high 60-80 percent for areas west of
the Flint and Apalachicola rivers, and 40-60 percent for areas east
of those rivers. With DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/Kg today, some
of these thunderstorms could produce gusty winds with the strong
downbursts. The primary hazards today will be the potential for
gusty winds and localized flash flooding from heavy downpours over
poor drainage areas. Storm motions look to be fast enough today that
excessive rainfall is unlikely. Overall, with shower and
thunderstorm coverage expected across the Florida Panhandle, SE
Alabama and extreme SW Georgia, high temperatures will struggle to
reach 90, with most staying in the mid to upper 80s. Areas further
east will likely reach the low 90s as cloud cover is expected to be
more sparse through the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will generally
fall into the low 70s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Weak frontal boundary pushes through the forecast area on Friday
as a broad east-coast trough translates into the Atlantic. While
rain chances taper off greatly compared to Thursday, a few pop-
up showers and storms are possible across the Big Bend where drier
mid-level air advecting in from the northwest will take longer to
reach. Drier northwest flow on Saturday keeps rain chances near
zero across the entire forecast area. With dry conditions, expect
max temperatures to be a few degrees warmer across Florida and in
the mid 90s, with the low to mid 90s across AL/GA counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The beginning of the long term period will start out fairly quiet
with northwest flow keeping the bulk of the deep-layer moisture
south of the region. With dry conditions the heat will remain with
widespread mid to upper 90s expected on Sunday. Weak moisture
return and a few passing disturbances in the northwest flow could
bring an increase in rain chances on Monday and Tuesday as a weak
frontal boundary drops in from the north and stalls. With the
increasing rain chances max temperatures drop a few degrees and
back into the low 90s.

Looking further ahead into the middle and latter part of next
week, attention possibly turns to the tropics. While much too
early to determine any sort of specifics, model ensembles are
indicating the possibility of increasing tropical moisture from
the south. Whether this turns into anything is much too early to
determine but it`s possible we`ll at least see a notable increase
in rain chances from Wednesday onwards as deep-layer moisture
streams in from the south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

MVFR to IFR CIGs are currently being observed at DHN, ABY, and VLD
this morning as a low cloud deck has quickly developed across SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. These restrictions should lift in the next
1-2 hours. VFR conditions look to remain for the rest of today;
however, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop by 14 utc for DHN and ECP, and push eastward to all other
terminals by the early afternoon. Coverage of thunderstorms looks
to diminish within 1-2 hours of 00 utc this evening. Thunderstorms
in the vicinity of airports may lead to brief MVFR to IFR
restrictions. Outside of thunderstorm activity all terminals look
to remain VFR. DHN could see more low CIGs develop Friday morning
that may lead to LIFR restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 958 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting SW winds generally between 10-15 kts
with 1-3-ft seas and a dominant period 5-6 seconds late this
morning. Satellite and radar show maritime convection moving east
near Mobile Bay-Pensacola. This activity aims to enter the
Okaloosa-Walton County waters within the next 2 hrs and pose a
gusty wind and lightning threat.

From CWF Synopsis...Light winds and seas are anticipated through
most of the period with the only marine concerns generally being
scattered showers and storms this afternoon and again on Friday.
Mostly dry conditions expected for the weekend with light
northerly winds on Saturday becoming southerly in nearshore waters
as the seabreeze develops. Rain chances slowly return early next
week as moisture and winds increases from the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Transport winds will predominantly be out of the southwest at around
10-15 mph today. Mixing heights east of the Flint and Apalachicola
rivers will climb to around 4000-5500 ft; however, areas west of
those aforementioned rivers can expect to see mixing heights around
2500-4000 ft. This will lead to much higher dispersions across areas
east of the Flint and Apalachicola rivers today where high mixing
heights and transport winds overlap. Minimum RH values will likely
only bottom out in the low 50s to low 60s across the region today as
a moist airmass remains in place ahead of a passing front today.
Expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the
early morning hours to potentially the early evening hours as the
slow moving front progresses southeastward throughout the day.
Overall, outside of the high dispersions, there are no fire weather
concerns today.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Locally heavy rainfall could materialize Thursday into Friday with
the passage of a front proving a focus for scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Temporarily dry conditions are expected
this weekend before a wet pattern possibly arrives next week.
Flooding concerns may be on tap for us by then. In terms of
rivers, a few in the Suwannee basin remain in action stage, but
continue on a downward trend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  73  94  70 /  60  20  40  10
Panama City   86  75  90  72 /  70  40  20  10
Dothan        88  71  92  66 /  80  20  10   0
Albany        91  72  93  66 /  70  20  20   0
Valdosta      93  73  93  69 /  40  30  40  10
Cross City    93  73  92  71 /  30  20  70  10
Apalachicola  86  76  88  74 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...IG3
NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Dobbs/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...IG3