314
FXUS62 KTBW 100007
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
807 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

There are just a couple isolated showers left in extreme eastern
portions of Polk and Highlands Counties as activity winds down
across the entire state. Early data from the 0Z sounding shows that
the pronounced dry layer remains starting around 700mb and
continues to be the main barrier for convective development. No
surprise with the ridge axis remaining overhead.

The main adjustment for this evening has been to lower POPs for
tomorrow. This dry air has proven to be very persistent and a
significant barrier to convective development. Tomorrow should be
the final day where this is significant. As the moisture deepens
Tuesday, that barrier will erode.

Aside from some adjustments to the POPs, no major changes have been
made. The forecast remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Convection continues to be the main concern, but trends suggest that
most sites are unlikely to see any significant impacts again
tomorrow. If they are to occur, it would likely be from 16Z to
17Z to around 20 to 21Z. SWFL is the only area where there is
still the potential for a few early to mid-day storms before the
westerly flow carries them inland. Just beyond the current TAF
period, however, convective impacts become much more likely as a
surge of tropical moisture favors convection at nearly anytime for
the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  93  79  88 /   0  20  70  80
FMY  79  92  78  87 /  20  40  70  80
GIF  76  96  76  89 /  10  40  50  80
SRQ  80  94  78  89 /  10  20  70  80
BKV  72  95  74  89 /   0  20  50  80
SPG  82  91  80  87 /  10  20  70  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery