Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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368 FXUS62 KTBW 081922 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 322 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A strong ridge axis is situated over the Central Gulf coast. The placement of this ridge continues advect more of a continental airmass over the northern half of the FL peninsula as tropical moisture tries to lift northward with a surface WSW flow in place. Outside of SWFL, drier air has generally won out. This has meant warm, humid conditions favoring feels like temperatures of 100+ this afternoon away from areas that experienced rainfall. However, even those locations that did experience rainfall are now warming with clearing skies. This may lead to a few more storms yet for this afternoon and evening. There is little change to this pattern for tomorrow. SWFL has the best chances for storms with additional moisture and less of a WNW flow when compared to Central FL and North FL. Elsewhere, it is going to be another hot, humid day with "feels-like" temperatures in the triple digits. Residents and visitors alike should remember to practice good heat safety this weekend. The good news is that this hot and dry pattern is coming to an end. Just looking at satellite imagery, one can note the plume of moisture and considerable cloudiness that is stretching across the Western Caribbean. Over the next few days, that moisture axis will lift northward over the Florida peninsula. When combined with the warm summer weather, this favors an active week of showers and thunderstorms across the entirety of the region, hopefully yielding beneficial rainfall. There is still plenty of uncertainty in the exact specifics of impacts, but one can certainly say that the rainy season is kicking into high gear this week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 While a few isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible across the interior this afternoon, impacts to terminals are unlikely. However, with increased moisture and instability across SWFL, some early morning showers are possible beginning tomorrow morning, much like today. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A WSW wind flow continues today with light winds and seas. Coastal showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible across SWFL tomorrow morning, but are likely to increase in coverage across the remainder of the area by the middle of the week. Locally hazardous winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Warm, but humid weather continues across the Florida peninsula, with scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms expected across SWFL tomorrow. A pattern change is getting underway, however, with numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected by mid-week. This should yield significant improvement to dry soil conditions. Even as dry weather continues, concerns for red flag conditions are low with ample RH values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 93 80 92 / 10 30 10 40 FMY 79 93 79 92 / 30 60 40 80 GIF 77 97 77 95 / 20 40 10 50 SRQ 79 92 79 91 / 20 40 20 60 BKV 72 95 72 94 / 10 20 10 30 SPG 82 92 83 91 / 10 30 20 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery/Pearce