Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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340 FXUS64 KTSA 100509 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1209 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this feature also shows up well in vis satellite. Airmass along and south of the boundary is seasonably unstable, but weak convergence along the boundary and relatively warm mid level temps have kept any storm development limited thus far. A mid level wave moving southeast across Kansas may provide forcing to overcome these limitations into this evening, and thus will see isolated to scattered storms eventually develop in the frontal zone as it continues to gradually push south. Weak wind fields will likely keep the severe threat minimal, though a few downbursts are possible. Somewhat higher probability of this ill be over west central AR where slightly stronger mid-level flow reside. Storms should be slow moving and as such, there will be a local threat of heavy rainfall. Some storms could linger farther south through at least part of tonight as the frontal zone drops farther south. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A drier and more stable airmass will be with us for a couple of days early this week, with minimal storms chances Monday. A weak wave in northwest flow is forecast to move from western OK into east TX Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps close enough for an isolated storm threat across parts of eastern OK. Beyond that, summer starts to creep back in with rising mid-level heights and sfc winds returning from the south, equaling hotter and humid conditions through the latter half of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Corridor of low VFR to periodic MVFR ceilings remains across SE OK into west central AR and is expected to remain in this generally vicinity through the overnight hours. Isolated ongoing convection across SE OK is expected to remain south of terminals. Low clouds steadily erode or move south of KMLC/KFSM by mid morning with VFR conditions then prevailing area wide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 87 65 89 / 0 10 10 10 FSM 63 86 65 90 / 0 10 10 10 MLC 62 85 64 87 / 0 10 20 10 BVO 57 86 62 89 / 0 10 10 10 FYV 58 84 61 87 / 0 0 10 10 BYV 56 82 60 86 / 0 0 10 10 MKO 61 83 63 86 / 0 10 10 10 MIO 56 83 61 86 / 0 0 10 10 F10 61 83 63 86 / 0 20 20 10 HHW 63 83 64 85 / 0 10 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...07