Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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177 FXUS64 KTSA 010217 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 917 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 917 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mid-level low/shortwave trough has shifted northeast of the forecast area and is currently centered over southwest MO. Wrap- around moisture and an apparent low/mid-level boundary on the southeast side of the low continues to generate a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly affecting portions of far eastern OK and into northwest AR. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease and move eastward through at least midnight (perhaps an hour or two beyond midnight across far northwest AR) as the mid-level trough continues to lift northeastward. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, though any thunderstorm activity should be relatively short-lived. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light, on the order of a few hundredths to a couple of tenths of an inch under heavier showers/storms. After midnight, patchy to areas of fog will be the main focus for the forecast area. Latest model guidance suggests increasing fog development, first forming across far northeast OK and far northwest AR, then spreading westward/southwestward through the overnight hours. There remains some uncertainty on exact coverage and density of the fog at this time. As the mid-level trough continues to lift northeastward, surface winds will further decrease and dewpoint depressions are expected to shrink through and after midnight. Went ahead and maintained widespread patchy fog across the forecast area, mostly after 3 AM, but did include areas of fog for northeast OK, far northwest AR, and locations near the Red River a few hours on either side of sunrise Saturday. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A relatively quiet day in the recent unsettled pattern anticipated Saturday, though there is some suggestion in model data of a weak remnant circulation associated with any more organized clusters of storms maintained overnight tonight, could drift over the region. Most CAM solutions do develop at least isolated storms across parts of the area, but coverage would likely remain quite limited. A somewhat higher chance of a storm complex maintaining into eastern OK Sunday morning continues to be suggested, albeit in a weakening state. The unsettled pattern continues early next week, with an overall trend toward hotter and more humid conditions. Some potential continues for a few more days for storm complexes to organize to the west and move into the area, with Sunday night into Monday still looking like the period of highest probability at this time. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Some MVFR/IFR ceilings persist at the northwest Arkansas sites at this time, but most sites should become VFR for much of this evening. Later tonight, fog/stratus development is expected, with MVFR or lower conditions expected into Saturday morning. Conditions will improve during the day Saturday, with a return to VFR conditions at all sites by afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 63 85 67 / 10 10 10 10 FSM 78 66 86 68 / 50 30 10 10 MLC 77 64 85 67 / 20 20 20 10 BVO 75 59 83 63 / 10 10 10 10 FYV 73 62 83 63 / 50 50 10 10 BYV 72 63 82 63 / 60 50 10 10 MKO 77 63 83 67 / 20 20 10 10 MIO 73 62 82 63 / 30 20 10 10 F10 76 62 83 66 / 10 10 20 10 HHW 80 65 83 68 / 10 10 20 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05