Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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321 FXUS64 KTSA 012338 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The main concern overnight is the low potential for a couple of opportunities of showers and thunderstorms - one this afternoon and early evening and another after midnight. Patchy fog may also develop again late tonight. Isolated shower and thunderstorm potential remains this afternoon and into early evening, primarily along and west of Highway 75, with a nonzero chance of development farther east in parts of east central and southeast Oklahoma - as depicted in CAMs. A north- northwest to south-southeast oriented instability maximum is analyzed from south central Kansas into far southeast Oklahoma, as is forecast to persist into early evening. This zone should be most favorable for isolated development through mid evening. A limited threat for severe weather will exist given the instability with storms that develop. The secondary area for development is a weak boundary evident in surface observations stretching roughly west to east just south of I-40. With lower instability in this area at present and persistent convection in North Texas, these two factors lead to a lesser potential for development in this zone. It`s worth noting that the HRRR has been persistent in development at least a couple of storms in this area between 21 and 00Z, which either dissipate or shift east thereafter. Will keep an eye on trends in the next half hour or so and add a mention of storms farther east through late afternoon if necessary. After midnight, a thunderstorm complex expected to develop farther to the west may make a run at parts of northeast Oklahoma after midnight. Current CAM trends indicate that most of it will make a southward dive and diminish in intensity before moving into eastern Oklahoma. Will maintain low POPs in northeast Oklahoma roughly west of Highway 75. Most guidance develops fog well after midnight, especially in parts of northwest Arkansas, extending some into northeast Oklahoma. Indications are that it should be shorter lived, less dense and less widespread than what occurred this morning so it will be addressed with a patchy fog mention, with no advisory issued with this package. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The overall weather pattern will remain active well into next week, with most days having at least some potential for showers and thunderstorms. On Sunday, a low chance for showers and thunderstorms will spread south and east through the afternoon hours as an upper level disturbance moves through the region. Sunday night and into Monday morning, storms that are expected to develop during late afternoon and evening well to the west of the area will move eastward into eastern Oklahoma and eventually parts of western Arkansas. A better chance for thunderstorms will accompany a stronger disturbance Monday and into Monday night. Tuesday night and into Wednesday, a front will sag into the area, providing yet another focus for shower and thunderstorm development. Instability during the early to mid week period will be supportive of severe weather, and along with modest deep layer shear, a limited to elevated threat will exist, especially during the afternoon and evening time frames. A stronger push of dry air from the north late in the week should bring a couple of dry days to the region. That looks to come to an end once again next weekend, with northwest flow aloft across the region and increasing potential for overnight thunderstorm complexes moving eastward into the region. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ensemble guidance suggests patchy fog redevelopment toward dawn will be more limited to northwest AR and west of KMLC. Have maintained a low probability of MVFR conditions with this issuance across northwest AR with VFR conditions elsewhere. Decaying convective complex likely to skirt northern OK sites with a greater likelihood of VFR ceilings through the morning. Winds will remain light east-southeast overnight then turn more southerly Sunday afternoon with occasional gusts for northeast OK terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 87 71 86 / 10 20 40 50 FSM 67 89 70 87 / 0 30 20 50 MLC 67 88 72 86 / 10 30 30 50 BVO 65 86 69 85 / 20 30 40 50 FYV 62 86 68 84 / 0 30 20 60 BYV 60 86 68 84 / 0 20 20 60 MKO 67 86 70 84 / 10 30 30 50 MIO 63 84 68 82 / 10 30 30 60 F10 67 86 72 84 / 10 30 40 50 HHW 67 86 71 84 / 0 30 20 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....22 AVIATION...24