Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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962 FXUS64 KTSA 310711 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 211 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 The 18Z HRRR from yesterday has a better handle on the current convective situation than any runs afterward and was used for guidance in the near term. The northern portion of a large MCS, which stretches from west-central TX up into south-central OK, is expected to slide across far southeast OK this morning. Some increase in scattered showers and storms are also expected ahead of it across west- central AR and southeast OK before daybreak. The potential for heavy rain will be greatest in the flood watch area (Choctaw county) with the MCS, with the threat ending as it shifts east. Will therefore adjust ending time of flood watch to 15Z. This is all in association with a trough of low pressure aloft that will be sliding over the region today. In the wake of the morning MCS down south, the data focuses storm coverage over western AR and neighboring far eastern OK, on the east side of the low pressure aloft. Storm coverage looks more scattered than anything, thus kept thunder probs below PoP forecast quite a bit. PoPs and thunder probs will decrease tonight as the low pressure aloft slides east and we lose daytime heating. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 After a relative lull on Saturday, PoPs/thunder chances increase some on Sunday as a weak wave slides across. Higher rain/storm chances are then expected Sunday night into Monday as a front approaches from the north. Another relative lull in the action is expected Tuesday before another potentially stronger shortwave trough and associated cold front affect the Plains. The 12Z EC was very amplified with this system and had a stronger cold front, whereas the other global models were not near as aggressive. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the 12Z EC solution had a lower prob chance of verifying, and climatology would also argue against it as well. Nevertheless, a front will push into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with higher rain/storm chances, and there`s definitely potential for an MCS to sweep across the region during this time. If the stronger flow aloft from the EC verifies, this MCS would have higher chances of being severe. Mainly quiet weather is expected to close out the work week. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas of light rain are ongoing across northwest AR this morning with the rest of the area being dry. So far CIGS have not come down much, but they are expected to overnight, with CIGS of 1-2 kft being common by daybreak. Low CIGS of 1-3 kft will persist through the day Friday before breaking up in the evening. Additional showers will develop across northwest AR overnight through mid morning. Isolated showers will be possible for all locations during much of the day tomorrow, elected to go with a long period of vicinity showers in the TAF to cover this possibility. An isolated thunderstorm could occur at any taf site, but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs for now. Winds will be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 63 85 66 / 60 30 10 10 FSM 76 66 86 66 / 80 60 20 10 MLC 77 63 85 66 / 80 30 20 10 BVO 75 60 84 62 / 50 30 10 10 FYV 73 62 81 62 / 80 60 20 10 BYV 72 62 80 61 / 80 70 20 0 MKO 75 63 83 65 / 70 50 10 10 MIO 73 62 82 62 / 70 40 10 10 F10 75 62 84 65 / 70 30 10 10 HHW 77 65 84 67 / 90 40 30 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ053. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...06