Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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694 FXUS64 KTSA 310516 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1216 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 920 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 The shortwave trough responsible for the line of convection this morning/afternoon continues to slide eastward over the Ozarks and central AR. Lingering light to moderate rain continues to fall, mainly across far northeast OK and far northwest AR. Latest runs of the CAMs show light-moderate precipitation persisting across portions of northwest AR through much of the evening and overnight hours. GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows another shortwave trough moving out of the southern High Plains. The shortwave trough is forecast to generate a thunderstorm complex that is expected to move across southern OK/Red River vicinity overnight tonight and through the early morning hours tomorrow. However, trends in hi- res model data now indicate a southern shift in the thunderstorm complex`s track from previous runs, with the latest HRRR run suggesting the complex remains south of the Red River as it pushes southeastward across northeast TX. Despite this occurring (or not occurring), there should be sufficient lifting, moisture, and instability to generate at least isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area as the shortwave trough advances eastward tonight across OK. With PWATs ranging between 1.5-1.75 inches across all of the area, more organized showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy to very heavy rainfall. With all that said, for the evening forecast update, went ahead and lowered PoPs area-wide tonight, especially before midnight. For the sake of forecast consistency and some forecast uncertainty, kept PoPs at 50-60% after midnight, highest chances after 3 AM. The absolute best chance of heavy rain (and possibly marginally severe thunderstorms) through the remainder of the night and early morning hours will be associated with the aforementioned thunderstorm complex, if it`s able to remain along/north of the Red River. This would mostly affect Choctaw and much of Pushmataha counties in OK. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Choctaw County through Friday evening. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Showers and storms are expected to expand in coverage Friday morning, but will favor highest PoPs across SE OK and NW AR in the morning, and begin to lower PoPs from W-E in the afternoon as the upper wave continues pushing to the east. Rain/storm chances will continue to diminish Friday evening an overnight. Subsidence behind the departing wave should allow for most if not all of Saturday to remain dry. Will maintain low PoPs for Sunday as another weak wave passes through. Active pattern to continue the middle of the next work week. However, a stronger upper system diving into the midwest states may finally push a cold front through the area which would give the area a break from the unsettled pattern we have been locked into. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas of light rain are ongoing across northwest AR this morning with the rest of the area being dry. So far CIGS have not come down much, but they are expected to overnight, with CIGS of 1-2 kft being common by daybreak. Low CIGS of 1-3 kft will persist through the day Friday before breaking up in the evening. Additional showers will develop across northwest AR overnight through mid morning. Isolated showers will be possible for all locations during much of the day tomorrow, elected to go with a long period of vicinity showers in the TAF to cover this possibility. An isolated thunderstorm could occur at any taf site, but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs for now. Winds will be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 76 63 84 67 / 70 30 10 20 FSM 77 67 85 67 / 70 50 20 10 MLC 78 64 85 67 / 80 40 20 20 BVO 75 60 84 63 / 70 30 10 20 FYV 76 62 82 62 / 80 50 20 10 BYV 73 63 81 61 / 80 60 30 10 MKO 75 63 82 66 / 70 50 10 20 MIO 72 62 82 62 / 80 50 10 10 F10 76 62 83 66 / 70 30 10 20 HHW 78 65 83 67 / 80 40 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ053. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...06