Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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214 FXUS64 KTSA 271929 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 229 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Weak boundary aligned near Interstate 40 is acting to pool moisture and a resultant narrow corridor of stronger instability. However, current Cu field is weak and ongoing pressure rises are likely to suppress and deep convection into the evening. A more noteworthy boundary lies across N TX where severe storms are likely to develop by early evening. A small chance exists for these storms to spread far enough ENE to move into far SE OK by late evening. Overall expect much the local region to remain dry through the overnight hours with mild low temps. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Monday) Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Primary sfc boundary orientation becomes NW to SE tomorrow and aligned with the flow aloft. Expectation is the primary focus for more widespread storms remains along the western periphery of the forecast area and points westward, however there remains enough guidance spread within a notoriously poorly modeled flow regime to warrant low precip chances area wide. Sufficient instability and shear profiles will exist to support an isolated severe risk through tomorrow night. Shower and storm chances continue on Wednesday with potential for a trend upward in overall chances as subtle vort maxes emerge from the widespread convection which will have occurred over the western High Plains. This level of detail will be more apparent with time but do not be surprised if precip chances trend upward Wednesday / Wed. night. Flow aloft transitions to more westerly Thursday into Friday and a notable wave is expected to pass during this time frame. Another period of high shower and storm chances is forecast with locally heavy rainfall amounts remaining a possibility. Some degree of severe weather risk will likely also be present but widespread organized storms do not appear likely at this time. Daily precip chances continue through next weekend as southwesterly unsettled flow aloft interacts with plentiful moisture and instability. A stormy and wet start to the month of June is likely. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid period at all area sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 83 62 83 / 10 30 30 30 FSM 64 87 65 83 / 0 30 30 40 MLC 64 86 64 82 / 10 40 40 50 BVO 59 80 58 82 / 20 30 20 30 FYV 60 84 59 82 / 0 20 20 30 BYV 60 83 59 80 / 0 20 10 20 MKO 63 84 62 80 / 10 30 30 40 MIO 60 81 58 81 / 10 20 10 20 F10 63 83 62 80 / 10 40 40 40 HHW 66 84 64 78 / 30 40 60 50 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...10