National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KTSA 282315
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
615 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Morning showers and thunderstorms have finally dissipated, largely
as expected, with the disturbance having shifted eastward into
northwest Arkansas. Expect cloud cover to continue to diminish
into the rest of the afternoon and evening before increasing once
again from the west early tomorrow morning. There is some concern
that additional showers and thunderstorms could develop toward
sunrise tomorrow, much like today, but warm mid level temperatures
should limit coverage and intensity at the very least. Will not
mention this potential in the official forecast given the limiting
factors but have bumped up POPs a bit from the NBM initialization.
Will also pass along to these concerns to the evening shift.
Breezy overnight conditions should also lead to well above normal
lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

The upper level flow pattern will gradually shift to a
southwesterly one atop the forecast area by Sunday, persisting
through the early part of the upcoming week. Windy and warm
conditions can be expected Sunday and again on Monday with highs
in the 90s in a lot of places Sunday and only slightly cooler
temperatures Monday.

A cold front will begin to move into the area late Tuesday and
into Wednesday, bringing the potential for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Instability and shear will support some threat for
severe weather Tuesday evening, primarily across areas north and
west of I-44. Due to the expected slow movement of the front and
copious available moisture, localized heavy rain and flooding
potential may also exist into Tuesday night.

Toward the middle to latter part of next week, the pattern will
transition to zonal flow and eventually northwesterly flow,
allowing the front to push through the entire forecast area and
bringing cooler temperatures to the region. During the flow
transition, there will also be continued potential for showers and
thunderstorms, although chances will gradually decrease through
late week and into the weekend. Expect a warmup to near normal
temperatures for the beginning of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022

Sfc winds will lessen some overnight, however will continue with WS
remark at all sites from this evening through mid morning.
Otherwise, VFR elements will prevail at all sites through the valid
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  72  87 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   67  91  69  88 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   71  90  70  86 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   70  89  72  86 /  10  10   0   0
FYV   67  88  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   66  86  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   70  88  70  85 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   70  86  70  84 /  10  10   0   0
F10   71  89  70  85 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   68  91  69  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23