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000
FXUS64 KTSA 071532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
932 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 932 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

A warm and breezy day remains on tap for eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas, with southerly wind gusts 35 to 45 mph
expected in much of the area. LeFlore County has been added to the
existing Wind Advisory this morning, with gusts exceeding 40 mph
expected primarily in the higher terrain areas of the county.
Despite the strong southerly winds, moisture is only slowly
increasing across mainly parts of eastern Oklahoma this morning,
and the dew point forecast has been trended toward the short term
consensus blend, which is handling the slower increase better.
High clouds should stunt the warming potential to some extent
today, but given the comparatively warm start and slight westerly
component to above surface winds, high temperatures have been
trended toward the NBM 75th percentile values, featuring highs
near 70 west of Highway 75. Fire weather concerns will exist
through the day, with locally near critical grassland fire spread
rates in parts of northeast Oklahoma, mainly north and west of
I-44, driven by the strong winds and fairly low relative
humidities expected. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect
through the afternoon for this potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

In advance of an upper level trough, a cold front will tighten
across north-central OK through southeast KS tonight. Patchy fog
may develop near this boundary, possibly clipping the northwest
corner of the CWA. Otherwise, the message for this storm system is
largely unchanged from previous forecast updates. The cold front
will approach the area Friday evening, but with very limited
moisture return, only a few isolated showers or storms are
possible. For much of northeast OK little or no rain will fall.
Pops are a bit higher for southeast OK and northwest AR, but even
there amounts will be meager, with most areas seeing just a few
hundredths of an inch. Cool and breezy northwest flow will settle
into the area Sunday, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and
lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. With ridging returning next week,
temperatures will warm into the 50s to perhaps low 60s once again.
No additional rainfall is expected until next Wednesday at the
earliest, when another shearing system approaches the area.
Ensemble guidance is in poor agreement with respect to the exact
timing and location of this system at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all sites. LLWS
in place through 15z for most sites... near 40-45 kts. Gusty
south winds develop this afternoon with gusts near 30 kts
expected. Winds ease slightly after 00z, but some gusts up to 20
kts may continue into the overnight hours. SCT mid and high
clouds expected today with ceilings dropping significantly near
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  54  70  40 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   66  49  68  48 /   0   0  20  60
MLC   67  55  71  43 /   0   0  10  20
BVO   69  50  70  35 /   0   0  10  10
FYV   64  47  64  41 /   0   0  20  60
BYV   62  50  63  44 /   0   0  20  60
MKO   66  53  68  41 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   65  52  65  39 /   0   0  20  40
F10   67  55  71  41 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   66  53  71  47 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ054>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...43