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000
FXUS64 KTSA 222037
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
337 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms have developed and are moving off the Front Range
this afternoon as expected. Water Vapor imagery shows wave moving
across WY/CO, which will force additional storms which will
likely grow into a forward-propagating MCS this evening. Low
level flow will respond to the advancing wave tonight, with
increasing moisture transport and stregnthening wind shear into
eastern OK, which will maintain severe potential well into the
night. Leading edge of the complex will likely be east of the CWA
prior to 12z, but low level jet will help maintain convection
through a good part of Saturday morning, resulting in an axis of
enhanced rainfall amounts.

Convection will eventually diminish later Saturday morning with a
resultant outflow boundary located somewhere across eastern OK
and western AR. Worth noting that latest CAM solutions have
trended a bit farther south with the track of complex overnight,
which will have some ramifications on where highest severe
potential will ultimately develop Saturday. Given these trends,
the boundary should be located somewhere near or south of I-40 by
afternoon, with very unstable air residing along and south. Deep
layer shear will be sufficient for supercell development near this
boundary late Saturday afternoon, and expected strength of low
level shear near the boundary implies a threat of rotating
updrafts. Significant severe weather, including a threat of
tornadoes, is definitely possible. The highest threat area will
need to be refined in later forecasts. These storms will continue
into the evening and ultimately move off to the east with severe
potential waning Saturday night.

Potential for storms will continue into Sunday morning, with
another severe complex expected to develop over the high plains
Sunday afternoon and evening. However, the favored track of this
will remain mostly to our north. Pattern next week will then trend
to one more typical of summer as ridging aloft strengthens over
the southern plains. Precip chances should then be minimal after
Monday, with temperatures climbing back above normal for the
later half of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  85  71  91 /  80  30  40  20
FSM   70  85  73  92 /  90  60  50  40
MLC   73  87  74  92 /  90  70  60  20
BVO   67  86  69  89 /  70  20  20  20
FYV   67  81  70  86 /  80  60  50  40
BYV   65  81  69  89 /  70  50  50  40
MKO   70  83  71  90 /  90  50  60  30
MIO   65  84  69  89 /  70  30  30  30
F10   70  85  72  90 /  90  50  70  20
HHW   76  92  76  93 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....14