976
FXUS64 KTSA 240729
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

  - Temperatures remain above normal with continued elevated to
    near critical fire weather conditions into the upcoming week
    before low to medium rain chances return mid week.

  - Active weather pattern late in the week and into next weekend
    brings in moisture and widespread showers and storms, putting
    a damper on fire weather concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Light winds and low dew points have arrived areawide, with
yesterdays cold front having pushed well south and east of the
area, replaced by surface high pressure. The surface high will
shift southward through today, allowing gusty west to southwest
winds to return to areas along and north of I-44 by this
afternoon, aided by a localized enhancement in the 850 flow near
the Kansas border early to mid afternoon. With low levels
remaining dry and temperatures warming to around 10 degrees above
normal, the gusty winds will lead to elevated to locally near
critical fire weather conditions focused along and northwest of
I-44. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued this morning, but it
is worth noting that some thought was given to a Red Flag Warning
issuance instead, given ERC percentiles in excess of 90 percent
in a good portion of that area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

The expectations for the remainder of the work week and into the
next weekend are highlighted by the best chances for rainfall that
the area has seen in awhile, which brings good news regarding the
persistent fire weather issues of late.

A wind shift will move through the region tonight and into
Tuesday, with winds being light enough during the day Tuesday to
preclude major fire weather concerns despite continued low
afternoon relative humidities. To our south, a warm front will
lift northward across Texas through the day, approaching the Red
River by Tuesday night. Low level moisture will increase across
areas south of I-40 in response, with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms into Wednesday as a mid level
disturbance interacts with the front. The northern extent of the
NBM POPs during this time frame looked much more reasonable than
24-hours ago, when the relevant feature placement is concerned,
and as such, no changes have been made to them with this forecast.

Low shower and thunderstorm chances will shift to northern
portions of the region Wednesday night and into early Thursday as
a mid level disturbance moves eastward along the Kansas border.

With southwesterly flow aloft setting up for the end of the week,
moisture return should be more substantial, with the result being
more widespread potential for rainfall /likely beginning in the
late Thursday into Friday time frame/ and eventually, increased
severe weather potential /Saturday into early Sunday/. A cold
front on Sunday looks to bring seasonably cooler conditions back
to the region, as well as a return to drier weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period at all
terminals. South to southwest winds will become gusty by afternoon
before decreasing after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  50  80  50 /   0   0   0  10
FSM   79  50  85  52 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   78  50  84  53 /   0   0  10  30
BVO   77  46  80  44 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   74  48  78  47 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   71  50  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   76  49  79  51 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   72  48  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   76  50  80  53 /   0   0   0  20
HHW   76  50  84  56 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07