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000
FXUS64 KTSA 241050
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
550 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered storms will develop again this afternoon, with the
better coverage across northwest Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.
Forecast reflects this with VCTS at the OK terminals and KFSM.
Storms should diminish by or shortly after sunset. MVFR conditions
will occur with storms, with brief heavy downpours reducing
visibility.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Convective potential continues to be the main concern thru
Saturday, followed by rain chances next week with the Gulf Coast
low.

Expect another day of mainly afternoon scattered convection today.
The best coverage should be in the terrain of W AR and SE OK.
Model soundings shows weakly capped and fairly unstable airmass
this afternoon. Just like yesterday, isolated severe storms
capable of producing damaging winds are possible, as well as
locally heavy rainfall.

As an upper storm system moves onshore from the Pacific late this
week, downstream ridging will develop over the Rockies. A
shortwave will top this ridge and slide across the Midwest. The
associated front will set off storms to our north Friday, and some
of this activity could affect our region by Friday night. Models
differ on the details/timing however.

Rising upper heights over the Plains, as the ridge over the
Rockies slides east, will squash rain/thunder chances by Sunday.
This also means that the heat will turn up as well. Expect highs
in the lower 90s from the weekend on into next week, with lows in
the 60s to near 70.

The GFS and ECMWF 00Z runs have trended east with the track of the
Gulf system, meaning very little if any impact on our weather
here next week.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  69  90  69 /  30  10  20  30
FSM   88  68  91  69 /  50  10  20  20
MLC   87  67  90  69 /  30  10  10  20
BVO   87  67  90  67 /  30  10  30  40
FYV   84  63  86  66 /  70  20  20  20
BYV   85  65  86  66 /  70  20  40  20
MKO   86  67  89  69 /  30  10  10  20
MIO   85  66  88  68 /  40  10  30  40
F10   86  67  90  69 /  30  10  10  30
HHW   88  68  90  69 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI