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000
FXUS64 KTSA 142314
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
chances for rain and thunderstorms will increase across NE OK
and NW AR between 09z-18z, where a period of MVFR vsbys/cigs are
expected in thunder. Outside of thunder, VFR elements will
prevail through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM CDT Fri May 14 2021/

DISCUSSION...
The forecast for the next seven days can best be summed up with
"It`s gonna rain". A very active weather pattern will develop this
weekend and persist through next week, offering multiple chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Overall, while isolated severe
weather will be possible during this time frame, flooding,
including potential for mainstem river flooding, should be the
bigger problem.

At present, scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across
south central Kansas this afternoon, drifting southeastward into
the northern fringes of the forecast area, diminishing in
intensity as they do. Given the persistence, have added some low
POPs and isolated thunder to the afternoon forecast but will not
extend this past 00Z.

The better chance for notable rain and thunderstorms will arrive
from the northwest early tomorrow morning, as a thunderstorm
complex expected to develop this afternoon in the High Plains
moves toward the area, weakening on its approach. This activity
should last past sunrise as it moves through northeast Oklahoma
and into far northwest Arkansas. By tomorrow afternoon, a boundary
will be stretched across northern portions of the area and will
become a focus for additional development by the afternoon and
into the evening. There is some uncertainty about where exactly
this will set up, as it could very well end up being north in
Kansas and Missouri. These afternoon and evening storms will have
some severe threat, including a low but nonzero threat of
tornadoes. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will affect
the region early Sunday morning and into the daytime hours as an
upper level disturbance moves eastward across the region.

As we move into the next work week, southwesterly flow aloft
develops over the region as a slow moving upper low takes up
residence over the southwestern United States. Timing each
individual disturbance that will move through the region, leading
to an uptick in the shower and thunderstorm coverage, is a low
confidence exercise at best, but the highest rain totals and
highest POPs should be associated with the ejection of the
aforementioned upper low toward the middle of the week.

Temperatures during this time frame are fairly tricky and
dependent on how much cloud cover persists between rounds of
precipitation. In the extended, high temperatures were nudged down
a couple of degrees each day from the NBM values, while the
relatively warm low temperatures from the NBM were accepted.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....23