-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
815
FXUS65 KABQ 021111 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
511 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The hottest weather of the year so far arrives today and
lasts well into next week. 90s and 100s will become more commonplace
over northern and central NM with Roswell flirting with 105 and
Albuquerque flirting with 100 on Thursday. Low-level moisture
arriving into NM Wednesday brings the first chance for an isolated
afternoon thunderstorm to the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Coverage
of afternoon storms notably increases Thursday along the central
mountain chain, trying to spread further into the Rio Grande Valley
Friday. Storm motions will be slow and erratic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The latest water vapor loop shows a large area of dry air moving
east across central AZ in the base of a weak upper level trough.
PWATs will fall to near 2 stdev below climo for early June. Surface
winds in response to the approaching trough have already turned out
of the southwest overnight with breezy winds in the high terrain.
Humidity values along and west of the central mt chain at 3am were
still less than 15%. Widespread min humidity near 5% is likely today
as the massive dry intrusion over AZ shifts east across NM. This dry
air along with breezy southwest winds and max temps in the 90s will
make it very crispy today. Folks with outdoor recreation plans
should stay well hydrated and protect yourself from extremely high
UV.

Southwest winds will remain breezy tonight in the southern high
terrain as the upper trough swings thru NM. It will also remain very
dry with overnight humidity below 25% in many areas. The exception
will be near the TX border where low level moisture creeps back to
the west overnight. Flow aloft will become west/northwest in the
wake of the trough Monday with lighter winds areawide. Max temps
will trend a couple degrees warmer as warm advection increases ahead
of a strengthening upper ridge over southern AZ. Moderate heat risk
will creep into more of the RGV and over much of eastern NM during
this period, which is only a prelude to hotter temps on the way this
week. Dehydration will again be a concern with min humidity below
10% for the entire region again on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Summer heat reaches its hottest levels of the season
thus far in the long term period Tuesday through Thursday.
Northwesterly breezy condtions will cover most of the forecast area,
downsloping lee of the central mountain chain pushing temperatures
into the 90s and 100s at many lower elevation locations. Roswell in
particular has a forecast high of 105F which is near a daily record
high for that day, and worthy of a potential Heat Advisory.
Numerical model guidance is depicting a bank of high level clouds
moving over NM Tuesday afternoon that would limit the warmup some.
More record highs would be in jeopardy if there ends being less of
these clouds. Wednesday sees a 592dm H5 ridge build over NM as a
weak backdoor frontal boundary pushes through eastern NM bringing
slightly cooler air and higher low-level moisture. So as
temperatures back off a few degrees over eastern NM, the building
pressure heights will allow for highs to climb 4 to 6 more degrees
along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. The ridge builds a few more
decameters Thursday with low-level moisture lingering around eastern
NM. Highs climb to their hottest levels of the forecast period for
central and western NM, and a couple degrees over Wednesday`s
readings for eastern NM. The Albuquerque metro in particular will
flirt with the 100F mark as highs area wide will be 8 to 12 degrees
above climatological norms for early June.

Chances for afternoon thunderstorms begin to enter the picture along
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday, but will be isolated if
any storms get going. More notable coverage for afternoon convection
begins Thursday as the aforementioned low-level moisture across
eastern NM rides up the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Scattered coverage of slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms
will be favored in this area, drifting over surrounding lower
elevation areas. Isolated coverage of mostly dry showers and storms
will be possible of west-central NM. This coverage spreads over more
of eastern NM and into the Rio Grande Valley as outflow from
Thursday`s convection attempts to push the low-level moisture
further west. Storm motions will again be slow and erratic given the
placement of the upper level ridge squarely over NM. Thereafter, an
upper low will track northward from the northern Baja into AZ.
Coverage of afternoon storms will greatly depend on how much dry air
the upper level low spins up ahead of it into western and central
NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 452 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

IFR low cigs have developed along the TX/NM border this morning
with even some MVFR vsbys around Clovis. This moisture will be
scoured to the east by late morning as exceptionally dry air
spreads over the entire region. A couple SHRA/TS may fire up
along the boundary before it shifts east into TX. Otherwise, it
will be very dry and breezy today over the entire region with hot
temperatures. Gusts near 30 kt are expected around KLVS and KTCC
after 2pm. Winds will taper off tonight at all terminals while
remaining breezy in the higher terrain overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Hot, dry, breezy, and unstable conditions will develop over the
region today. Critical fire weather conditions are likely for a
couple hours this afternoon over parts of northeast NM, especially
along I-25 from near Las Vegas to Raton eastward across Harding and
San Miguel counties. The spatial coverage and duration is marginal
enough with recent rainfall and suspected greenup to forgo a Red
Flag Warning. Winds will trend lighter Monday then a tad stronger
again Tuesday from the west/northwest. Temps will remain hot with
very low humidity during this period. A ridge will begin to build
over the region Wednesday with the hottest temps so far this year
for many areas thru at least Thursday. A moist backdoor boundary
will slide into eastern NM Wednesday with a potential uptick in
storm coverage first over the Sangre de Cristo Mts. Coverage may
continue to increase around the higher terrain thru the end of the
week with potential for lightning starts just about anywhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  49  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  83  40  84  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  82  46  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  41  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  46  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  84  40  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  83  46  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  86  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  82  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  87  40  88  42 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  91  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  40  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  82  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  84  50  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  77  42  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  71  39  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  76  32  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  84  41  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  80  45  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  90  53  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  83  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  87  53  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  90  60  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  60  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  93  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  59  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  93  56  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  92  58  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  92  53  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  92  56  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  92  53  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  88  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  91  59  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  96  58  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  82  53  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  86  54  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  86  51  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  44  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  83  50  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  85  52  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  85  51  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  89  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  53  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  83  50  83  54 /   5   0   5   0
Raton...........................  87  47  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  88  48  89  53 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  84  49  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  91  55  90  61 /   5   0   5   0
Roy.............................  88  53  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  95  58  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  91  59  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  95  58  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  95  59  97  62 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  97  58  98  61 /   5   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  95  60  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell......................... 102  64 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  93  60  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  91  56  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42