683
FXUS63 KAPX 031409
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1009 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Perhaps a few showers and non-severe thunderstorms tonight.

- Some scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible Tuesday. A
  locally stronger storm not ruled out, with primary hazards of
  gusty winds and hail.

- Potential for more widespread showers and thunder Tuesday
  night into Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures and more unsettled weather possible at
  times after Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Fog continues to dissipate/lift this morning with just a few
areas south of M-55 remaining at 10 AM local. This will set the
stage for a nice afternoon with southerly winds, mildly breezy
on occasion, and warm temperatures. Could be some patchy fog
tonight across northeast lower once again but definitely not as
substantial as this past morning. Few decaying showers and
embedded storms approach this evening and early overnight, but
much of the activity looks to hold off until Tuesday. Looks to
be a bit of early morning shower and storm activity, then a
transition to typical summertime airmass thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Fuel for these storms will be temperatures soaring
well into the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s fostering modest to
moderate instability across the region. Locally heavy rain and
isolated instances of gusty winds and hail will be the primary
concerns with this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Mid level ridging centered south to north across the Northwoods
early this morning, with the center of its surface reflection
running just a bit further east across Quebec and eastern Ontario.
Dry weather the result, with just some increasing high clouds from
decaying showers well to our west.

Overhead ridge will only slowly move off to our east today and
tonight as weak shortwave trough rotates into the western Great
Lakes. Increasing elevated return flow will help organize and drive
a warm front into central Michigan by sunrise Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Cloud/temperature trends and addressing potential for a few showers
and thunderstorms tonight.

Details:

Focus for initial deep layer moisture advection now looks to remain
off to our west today (delayed by several hours from original
expectations), with better moisture return expected later tonight
with arrival of weak low level jet across the western Great Lakes.
Lack of any specific forcing mechanism to utilize this increased
moisture, with exceptionally disorganized and weak forcing along the
the northward moving warm front and better mid level support
remaining well off to our west. Simple breadth of moisture advection
(precipitable water values exceed an inch this evening through the
overnight) and some minimal mass convergence within arrival of that
low level jet does support at least the chance for a few showers
tonight. Just enough elevated instability to perhaps kick off a few
embedded thunderstorms, but definitely nothing severe expected.
Definitely wouldn`t be surprised to see much of the area remain dry
tonight, with the better threat for showers remaining centered
across Lake Michigan/central upper Michigan and points west.
Definitely will feel a bit more like summer today, with at least
filtered sunshine this morning and developing light southeast flow
helping drive temperatures well up into the 70s and lower 80s. Of
course that southeast flow will drive Lake Huron marine influences a
bit further inland, keeping coastal areas of northeast lower and
eastern upper Michigan at least a few degrees cooler. A mild
overnight, with lows only reaching the middle 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Convoluted pattern dictated by a closed low spinning over Manitoba
directing zonal flow into the region Tuesday. Expectation is that a
convective wave will be over the region and making its departure
through the day, bringing a lingering chance of showers and perhaps
some thunder across the region. This wave is set to clear, with
strong southerly flow increasing moisture concentration ahead of a
more synoptically driven wave later Tuesday into Wednesday. This
should drive enough instability to generate the chance for more
showers and thunder. Beyond this, the closed low will slowly drift
south and east into the Great Lakes, forcing a second cold front
through the region by Thursday, ushering a cooler airmass. The slow
moving low pressure will be somewhat transient, but slow enough to
bring a period of below normal temperatures and perhaps additional
showery conditions into the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Tuesday Afternoon: Frustrating amount of uncertainty regarding the
departure of tonight`s influences from the convective wave... but
general consensus is that activity should taper across northeast
lower and the eastern Yoop by early morning. On its heels, will see
an impressive surge of moisture, with what will likely be the first
quite humid day of the warm season looking like it is on the table
as dewpoints may balloon as high as the mid to perhaps upper 60s. As
we will be in more of the warm sector in the synoptic scheme of
things with surface temps rocketing well into the 80s in the
afternoon, should see enough to bust through any sort of capping
across the region, resulting in some showers and thunder. Would not
be out of the question for some of these storms to be on the
stronger side, with the strongest storms possibly dropping some hail
and gusty winds amid steepening lapse rates aloft contributing to
the potential for 1,000-2,000 Joules of MLCAPE. Slow storm motions
are also expected, and with PWATs soaring upwards of 1.50+, could
certainly see some locally heavy rainfall totals from these airmass
driven storms.

Tuesday Night / Wednesday: As stated by previous forecaster, still
some uncertainty regarding the approach of the deeper synoptic wave
for later Tuesday, but nonetheless, guidance still tries to depict
the larger wave passing through later Tuesday night into Wednesday,
complete with what will probably be a linear storm mode originating
from Wisconsin. Will need to watch how much elevated instability can
transpire ahead of this line to sustain itself as it moves into the
region, but looks like it will be weakening as it moves into
northern Michigan. Result will be potential for a window of showers
and storms across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Still hold some concerns from previous forecast cycle that this
feature is slower to move into the region, as that could raise the
stakes for severe weather if this turns into more of a late
Wednesday morning - afternoon passage given the presence of deeper
bulk shear with this wave.

Some time in the Thursday - Thursday evening timeframe, will be
watching a secondary cold front passing through the region in
conjunction with the approaching closed low pressure system. Result
will be an airmass that goes from a mid-summer feel to more of an
autumnal feel, with temperatures going from a peak of well into the
80s on Tuesday to low-mid 60s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Any lingering MVFR to IFR producing fog/mist/stratus will burn
off quickly this morning. Expect VFR conditions through the
remainder of this taf period under just some increasing high and
mid level clouds. May see a few showers (perhaps some embedded
thunderstorms) develop tonight, especially across western taf
locations. Uncertainty remains significant with regards to
overall shower coverage and timing, forcing just vicinity
wording for now. No significant wind concerns through the
period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MSB