278
FXUS63 KAPX 090345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances of showers linger overnight into Sunday.

- High pressure leads to dry conditions Monday and Tuesday.

- Next chance of rain and some thunder Tuesday night and Wednesday.

- Potential for some lingering shower and thunder chances
  Thursday and beyond as warmer temperatures return to northern
  Michigan.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Low pressure centered along the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border
will continue to slowly push eastward into the Eastern Great
Lakes overnight. Meanwhile...another upper level trough axis
will swing into the Western Great Lakes overnight...helping to
perpetuate small chances of showers across our CWA into Sunday.
All thunder has ended with loss of diurnal instability...and do
not expect any additional thunder overnight. Expect another cool
night across our Northwoods with overnight lows in the mid 40s
to around 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A cutoff upper level low will continue to reside across the region
into tonight before slowly lifting out of the area Sunday. Upper
level disturbances embedded in the upper low will continue to bring
chances for showers. APX and surrounding radars along with surface
observations indicates that showers continue to overspread northern
Michigan. This activity is expected to move across the region
through early evening. An embedded rumble of thunder can`t be ruled
out. Hi/resolution guidance then has various possibilities tonight
with the best chance of lingering showers across eastern upper and
far northern lower. The next disturbance Sunday appears to be
moisture starved so only expecting isolated showers and sprinkles.
Another push of cooler air along with a decent amount of cloud cover
will likely limit highs Sunday to the upper 50s to the 60s (10 to 15
degrees below seasonal averages). Tonight`s lows ranging from the
mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

An amplified pattern is expected for the beginning of the long-term
as longwave troughing across the Midwest quickly shifts east as a
ridge of high pressure tracks closely behind. Pressure rises will
bring about warmer and dryer weather resulting in little to no
precipitation chances until Wednesday. A wave of energy is expected
to pass through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with its
associated surface low north of Lake Superior. With a cold frontal
passage expected to pass through the region Wednesday, this setup
could bring about some showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or
two. As the ridge tracks eastward, a more progressive zonal pattern
sets up for the rest of the week. With this, the chance for some
convective activity still exists as waves track just north of the
Mitt- Stay tuned!


PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

Temperatures:  As pressure rises in response to a ridge overhead,
clouds will decrease in coverage leading to a steeper diurnal curve
from daytime highs and nighttime lows. By Tuesday temperatures will
be in the 70s and will continue to increase through the week with
most areas forecasted to be in the upper 70s/80s by Thursday.
Nighttime lows will also slowly increase with the temperatures, but
will still be generally 20 to 30 degrees cooler then daytime highs.
Sunday and Monday night look to be the coolest nights on tap with
lows in the upper 30s/ low 40s, especially Monday night. No frost is
expected at this time, but it cannot be ruled out just yet.

Precipitation Chances: An advancing wave and associated low pressure
and cold front boundary are expected to track through the region
Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. There are some signals that
severe weather could be possible, but signals are weak for this
possibility. The most likely scenario to help initiate things, would
be for the front to pass through the region later in the day
Wednesday to provide more time for instability to build from diurnal
heating. Guidance continues to struggle with the rest of the week in
regards to exact timing of next precipitation chances, but it is
looking to be unsettled as we head into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Low pressure centered along the Michigan/Indiana/Ohio border
will push eastward into the Eastern Great Lakes overnight.
Meanwhile...another upper level trough axis will swing thru the
Western Great Lakes region later tonight into Sunday...
maintaining low VFR/MVFR cigs and small chances of showers for
the next 24 hours. Surface winds will remain W/SW AOB 10 kts
overnight...shifting to the NW and strengthening to 10 to 20
kts with some higher gusts on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MLR