Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 201352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
952 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Issued at 952 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Spring begins at 1215 pm edt.

Bands of shallow stratocu are streaming into ne lower MI this
morning, mainly south of APN. Not impossible we could still see a
few snowflakes out of this. Expect this to mix out with daytime
heating, as low/mid levels are otherwise very dry (see observed
12Z APX sounding, with a PWAT of 0.11).

Meanwhile, cirrus is thickening into nw lower MI, in advance of
slow-moving upper troffing in the northern plains/upper MS Valley.
This slow thickening trend should also continue thru the daylight
hours, especially sw of a Trout Lk-APN line. This will not allow
for full sun today (as opposed to previous days), and will limit
heating somewhat.

Max temps still cool, near 30f to the lower 30s in most locales.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Spring arrives with a bit of a Winter-like feel...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Starting to sound like a broken record,
but southern extent of broad and strong Canadian high pressure
continues to dominate our weather. Northeast flow around this high
resulting in a bit of a winter chill across the northwoods, helped
along by cloud-free skies. Still waiting on that shallow Lake Huron
response, much like what was experienced last morning. No evidence
of that yet, but still think strato-cu will develop across at least
portions of northeast lower Michigan in the next few hours where
upslope and moisture contribution is maximized. May even see a few
flurries as top of shallow moist layer extends into the low end of
the dendritic growth layer.

Simply not much change anticipated over the coming days, with
interactive baroclinic axis displaced well to our south and west,
with that Canadian high maintaining complete control of our weather.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Same old, same and
temperature trends.

Details: Spring officially arrives at 12:15 this afternoon! Won`t
quite feel like spring however, as that cool northeast flow
continues. Any northeast lower lake clouds and flurries expected to
mix out later this morning and early afternoon, leaving behind
increasing high clouds. Still expecting skies to be partly to mostly
sunny, with that sun doing its best to offset continued cold air
advection. It will help a tad, but expected readings mostly in the
upper 20s to lower 30s will be a good 5 to 10 degrees below normal
for the start of Spring.

Plenty of high and mid level clouds tonight, especially the further
south one goes. May once again see a late night Lake Huron response
into northeast lower Michigan. Slight modification of the low level
environment and a bit shallower moisture profile may mute this
response some, but still could see some very shallow strato-cu and a
few flurries. Definitely not a big deal. Those clouds and continued
light surface winds should keep temperatures from plummeting too
much, but still expect readings similar to those experienced early
this morning (mostly in the teens).


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Continued Quiet Weather...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

Perhaps some lingering low clouds early Wednesday. Otherwise, while
the East Coast gets pounded by yet another Nor`Easter (the 4th in
less than three weeks), the western Great Lakes will remain quiet
with only a moisture starved upper level low cruising across the
region without much fanfare Thursday (maybe producing some
mid/high level cloudiness). Temperatures will moderate some
but still remain at least a few degrees below seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

...Not Much Going On...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

A pronounced Rex block (upper level high) is shown to form across
central Canada and extend southward into the western Great Lakes.
Meanwhile at the surface, very strong high pressure (1040 mb) will
supply another short of chilly air. The Rex block will keep pretty
much all weather systems from affecting the forecast area for a
few days so quiet but cool weather will persist all the way into the
beginning of next week. Temperatures will be at least a few degrees
below average for later March.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 623 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

More of the same with mostly VFR conditions expected under some
increasing high level clouds. Still some concern for a lake
induced MVFR producing strato-cu deck to impact KAPN this morning
and again early Wednesday morning. If low clouds do form they
should mix out rather quickly during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Northeast winds, at times a bit gusty at KAPN,
expected through the duration.


Issued at 306 AM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Little change as northeast winds, at times a bit gusty, will
continue across the big waters for the next few days. Combination of
winds and waves will result in small craft advisory conditions on
portions of northern Lake Michigan (today and tonight) and Lake
Huron (today through Wednesday morning). Weakening pressure gradient
should result in decreasing wind speeds Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday, with winds slowly backing more northerly through this




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