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000
FXUS63 KARX 011206
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
606 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Key Messages:

 - Some snow possible in Clayton County in northeast Iowa and
   Grant County in southwest Wisconsin through tonight. Amounts
   look to less than inch. Elsewhere, it will be dry.

 - Still plenty of uncertainty on the track of a low pressure
   system on Saturday night and Sunday. This will impact
   precipitation amounts and location.

 - An Alberta Clipper will move southeast through the region on
   Monday night. While there is still uncertainty on the track,
   there is agreement that precipitation amounts will be light.

Today through Tonight:

A wave of low pressure will move along a stationary front located
to our south and southeast. This system will move northeast from
Missouri into the eastern Great Lakes. Like the past couple of
days, much of the precipitation associated with this system will
remain mainly to our southeast. The highest probabilities of any
snow in our area is located across southern Clayton County in
northeast Iowa and Grant County in southwest Wisconsin. The
01.00z HREF has the probabilities 50-70% for a half-inch or
greater of snow and up to up to 50% for an inch or greater of
snow.

With the better snow rates expected to remain southeast of the
area, not expecting too much impact to travel.

Saturday night into Sunday:

Still plenty of uncertainty for this time period on yet another
low pressure system moving through the region. The GFS and many of
its ensemble members have a 40 to 90% probability of at least a
tenth of an inch of precipitation across the eastern two-thirds of
the area. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and its ensemble members continue
to be much further southeast. Only 10% of ECMWF ensemble members
are as far north as the GEFS. The probabilities for a tenth of an
inch or greater of precipitation are only up to 35% across
northeast Iowa and southwest and central Wisconsin. The highest
probabilities are from eastern Grant County northeast into
southeast Juneau County in southwest and central Wisconsin.

Temperatures at the surface and aloft have warmed some, so there
is more of a mix of rain and snow. There continues to be
differences on where this snow may fall. The GEFS has up to a 40%
of an inch or greater of snow along and north of Interstate 94.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF ensemble has up to 25% probability of an inch
or greater and that is in Clayton County in northeast Iowa and
from southwest into central Wisconsin. The Canadian ensemble is
similar to the ECMWF ensemble, but its probabilities are higher
(up to 50%).

Monday night:

The models continue to show that an Alberta Clipper will move
southeast through the area. As with the past couple of days, there
are still uncertainty on the track of this system. As far as
precipitation amounts, it still looks rather light. The
probabilities of 0.05 inches or greater of precipitation is less
than 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Increasing cloud cover at FL250 will be primary impacts for much
of the area today from southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin.
From parts of northeast Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin, mixed
precipitation impacts may reach as far north as KOVS. More likely
near KPVB. With snowfall, IFR likely. However, surface
temperatures expected to float near freezing, resulting in a
rain/snow mix. Winds turn northeasterly through the day as the low
pressure skirts across our southern periphery. Saturday night
precipitation potential is similar, meager confidence (25-50%),
but potentially more widespread.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...JAR