268
AXNT20 KNHC 030908
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jun 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba:
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain divergent flow across the area through Friday. This will
support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable of
producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds through
Friday. The greatest risk for large accumulations of rainfall is
from Tuesday through Friday. The heavy rain may lead to flash
flooding and mudslides. Flooding is also possible in areas of
Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from recent heavy
rain events. Please refer to products from your local weather
service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 11N
southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is
described below.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 09N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described
below.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 11N southward,
and moving west at 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from 19N
southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection over water
remains minimal, however deep convection is spreading from
eastern to central Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from 21N southward,
and is quasi-stationary due to interaction with an upper-level
trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up near
the Nicaraguan coast, and from 15N to 17N between 77W and 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal,
then curves southwestward to 07N20W. An ITCZ continues from 07N20W
to 06N32W, then from 06N35W to 07N48W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 08W and 40W. Widely
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 04N
to 12N between 40W and 58W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters off
the Panama coast to northern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough is in the coastal waters off Tampa Bay,
Florida, with another trough just NW-W of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Otherwise, a surface ridge runs across the southeast United States
supporting moderate to fresh winds with 3 to 6 ft seas in the
western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with 2 to 4 ft seas in
the eastern Gulf. Haze due to agricultural fires over Central
America and Mexico continues across much of the Gulf with the
lowest visibilities in the SW Gulf.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through
the next several days, supporting generally moderate to fresh E to
SE winds in the western Gulf and near the Yucatan Peninsula,
occasionally strong, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern
Gulf. By the end of the week, the ridge may weaken allowing for
winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for the next
couple of days reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly
over the western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event.

A surface trough near the Windward Passage is triggering widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica,
Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-central
basin. Gentle NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the
southwestern and northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through early
today, with seas to around 8 ft. A tropical wave in the western
Caribbean will support scattered showers and thunderstorms
between the Windward Passage and the coast of Nicaragua, which are
forecast to continue and amplify the next couple of days. Fresh
winds are expected in the eastern Caribbean tonight into Tue as a
tropical wave moves by.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N47W, then continues as a stationary front at 27N55W
westward along 25N/26N. A surface trough is also present over
the Turks and Caicos Islands. Aided by divergent winds related to
an upper-level trough over the Bahamas, scattered moderate
convection is visible from 19N to 30N between 62W and 75W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near and
up to 150 nm south of the cold front. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found
across the western Atlantic north of the front to 29N/30N, with
moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 22N and west
of 63W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft elsewhere N of 20N and west of 60W, as
well as N of 27N and west of 50W. Moderate to fresh trades and
seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of 19N and west of 35W. Gentle to
locally moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across the
remainder of the open tropical Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front weaken into a surface trough
by this evening. Energy associated with a convectively active
tropical wave, currently over the W Caribbean, will lift NNE and
merge with this trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough will drift
eastward and move to the central subtropical Atlantic waters Thu
into Fri, with low pressure possibly developing along it. Fresh to
occasionally strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this
trough/low as it crosses the north-central and then eastern
offshore waters. Ridging will build across the basin Thu through
Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky