Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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406 FXUS64 KBMX 081126 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 626 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 Broad ridging will persist over the area with surface high pressure centered across Middle Tennessee. This will result in conditions through tonight. A few disturbances will rotate east around the ridge, resulting in showers and storms to our north, with just mid to upper level clouds spreading southward into our north. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s north and northeast to the low 90s south and southwest. On Sunday, a trailing cold front will push southward through the Tennessee Valley. Convection should mainly remain to our north through the morning and early afternoon. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms to spread into north Central Alabama mid to late afternoon and through the evening, as the front drifts southward and outflow boundaries interact with a conditionally unstable airmass characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg CAPE and 35-45kts of bulk shear. Strong storms are possible across the north and will need to monitor the trends as we get closer. Convective temps are rather high given warm low levels, and development will depend on outflow boundaries or the difficulty of timing the arrival of the front, due to the zonal flow aloft. In addition, dry air at the surface should prevent too much from developing in the south and central sections. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 We have a much clearer picture of the long term period than 24 hours ago with the GFS finally coming into agreement with the ECMWF. A large trough over the eastern CONUS will deliver a cold front to our area Sunday night into Monday. Modest upper-level support and lift near the front may be sufficient for isolated or scattered showers and storms Sunday night through Monday afternoon. A cooler and much drier airmass will be advected from the north Monday night with lows ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s from north to south. Dry conditions and low relative humidity values should continue Tuesday and Wednesday. An increase in moisture and rain chances may take place on Thursday and Friday with the possible development of a subtropical low in the Gulf of Mexico. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT SAT JUN 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected for at least the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light, generally 5 to 7 kts in the afternoon. We will see the winds shift more of southerly flow by the afternoon. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air filters into the area behind a cold front, with rain free conditions expected areawide through tonight. Minimum RH values will range from 28 to 38 percent this afternoon. 20ft winds will vary from northwest to southwest by this afternoon and remain at or below 7 mph. Rain chances return to the north Sunday afternoon, with minimum RH values ranging from 35 to 40 percent in the far southeast, and 40 to 55 percent elsewhere. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 89 63 92 65 / 10 20 30 20 Anniston 90 65 92 68 / 10 10 20 20 Birmingham 91 68 95 69 / 10 10 20 20 Tuscaloosa 91 66 94 70 / 0 0 20 20 Calera 91 67 94 70 / 0 10 20 20 Auburn 90 67 92 71 / 0 0 10 20 Montgomery 92 65 95 72 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 93 65 95 71 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...16