Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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592 FXUS64 KBMX 210828 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 328 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024 High and dry for the next 2 days will be the rule across the area. With plenty of sun, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s each day. There may be some afternoon fair weather cumulus on Wednesday. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 315 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024 A quasi-stationary front will lay over across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley region on Thursday after the departure of a potent low pressure system to the north. This will coincide with a zone of higher moisture content and confluent low-level flow. As such, I`ve maintained low PoPs across the far north and northwest counties, though most convective activity should remain closer to the I-40 corridor in Tennessee. Most of Central Alabama will remain dry and hot, basically summer-like weather pattern. In fact, temperatures will remain generally steady in the upper 80s and lower 90s. By Friday a southern stream shortwave perturbation scoots east across the I-40 corridor. We`ve had some higher PoPs, but I feel like the timing is not in favor of higher convective coverage as it will be to our northeast during peak heating. Best rain chances remain north of I-20, but I`ve included token 20s through the southern zones. Memorial Day weekend looks fairly steady with isolated to scattered afternoon convection, with best chances northward near best moisture, instability, and westerly flow aloft. Presence of the ridge will wane a bit this weekend, allowing for these increases in mid-level flow. We`ll probably be on the fringes of seeing some organized thunderstorm activity through the end of the period (Monday), though medium-range guidance remains consistent with best forcing and wind shear staying to our north. Nonetheless, it`s something to keep in mind as the trend in guidance indicates each convective system drawing closer to Alabama. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2024 High pressure will be in control of much of the Eastern CONUS. VFR conditions for the next 24 hours with light winds from the southeast less than 7 kts. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will be in control through Thursday. Min RH values Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. 20 foot winds will be generally 4 to 6 mph from the south. Max RH levels tonight will rebound to the mid 80s to mid 90s. Next chance for wetting rain Thursday night across the northwest, with a better chance area-wide on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 89 61 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 88 64 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 90 66 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 89 66 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 88 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 85 65 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 88 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 87 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...16