787
FXUS65 KBOU 041647
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1047 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy, dry, and a little cooler today.

- Summer heat through the rest of this week, with a few 90 degree
  readings over the plains, with Friday the hottest day.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Pretty strong west and northwestly winds are in place this
morning, There are a few sites gusting to 40 mph in Weld County.
The radar is showing a bit of wind signature just east of the
divide. Not to much to change on the grids this update. Just a
few wind, sky and temperature alterations based on current
conditions. No pops today or tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

An upper level disturbance is exiting to the east early this
morning, taking with it the high based showers that produced some
gusty microburst winds last night.

Subsidence and stronger northwest flow will be left in it`s wake,
along with potential for mountain wave enhancement near the Front
Range as the stable layer approaches mountain top. The combination
of the above factors will bring breezy to windy conditions to the
forecast area today, with the strongest gusts in the mountains,
foothills, and near the Wyoming border. Gusts around 40 mph can be
expected in those areas, with a few wind prone spots in the
terrain hitting 50+. The rest of the forecast area including the
Denver metro area and most of the plains east and southeast of
Denver will see gusts closer to 25-30 mph late this morning
through the afternoon. Those winds will weaken this evening with
the loss of mixing.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with post-trough but
weak cold advection aloft. We`ll see highs mostly in the lower to
mid 80s across the plains. For tonight, clearing skies and
lighter winds should allow modest inversions to develop, with lows
in the 50s across the plains, 40s foothills, and 30s mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Ensemble guidance shows a consensus of an upper level ridge over the
region for much of the extended period. Wednesday will be quite warm
and dry aided by downslope flow and warm 700mb temperatures. Highs
range in the upper 80s to low 90s across the plains and urban
corridor. A weak backdoor front may potentially push far enough west
to keep it a few degrees cooler on Thursday. Thursday will be mainly
dry. Kept in low chances (< 20%)for a few showers/storms south of I-
70 with very marginal instability and moisture about.

Friday and into the weekend, the ridge shifts more east over
Colorado. Friday is likely to be the warmest day of the period
supported by a couple more degrees of warming in the 700mb
temperatures. This will likely set up the I-25 corridor and most of
the plains in the low 90s. Ensembles show a signal for anomalous
moisture advecting into the region for Friday and through the
weekend. Within this timeframe, a few weak shortwave troughs move
through the northwesterly flow aloft bringing periods of weak
synoptic ascent. Cooling aloft will help bring more instability to
promote showers and thunderstorms. This will also in response
bring slightly cooler high temperatures to the region (80s for the
lower elevations). The cooler and more unsettled pattern likely
continues into early next week with afternoon showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Winds are attempting to slip back to SW early this morning with
slight decoupling noted. But, with a little heating we expect
W/NW to increase in most areas by 15Z-16Z, and then turn more NW
18Z-01Z. Gusts should average around 25 kts through most of that
period, but a few gusts to 30 kts are possible. Also to note,
there are indications that we could see a few channels of those
NW winds, with some lulls in between those channels. Therefore,
there`s a 20-30% chance of lighter winds for at least a portion of
the 15Z-01Z period.

Winds then decrease 01Z-04Z before turning to south/southwest
winds 04Z-06Z. SCT-BKN mid and upper level clouds will also be
clearing this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Alpine snowmelt will increase runoff the next several days with
the arrival of summer heat. Hydrologic forecasts show a few
segments of the upper Colorado and Fraser Rivers getting to or
near action stage this week, which means flows will be high and
fast but flooding threat limited. Please use caution and respect
these fast moving and cold flows in the high country.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......RJK
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM....Mensch
AVIATION.....Barjenbruch
HYDROLOGY....Mensch