Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
648 FXUS63 KDDC 271903 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 203 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several opportunity for rain upcoming this week. - CSU-MLP is showing some decent signs of severe weather potential on Thursday. - Risk of flash flooding is also increasing mainly Thursday night into Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 18z observations show quiet weather conditions across the central plains with a few fair weather cumulus clouds foring in the far southwestern parts of Kansas. At the surface we have light and variable winds with a weak surface low developing in southeast Colorado. In the upper levels we have mainly northwest flow with a developing shortwave going over the front range of the Rockies. Tonight we will have two areas of interest when it comes to rain/storm development and both will be along weak frontal boundaries. One will be along the I-70 corridor extending southeast to central Kansas and the other will be in the northwest Texas panhandle to areas just south of Medicine Lodge. An upper level shortwave will move out of southeast Colorado into western Kansas after midnight and will interact with mainly the northern frontal boundary to produce a line of showers and storms from WaKeeney to Hutchinson. A second area of storms could develop along the southern front as a modest low level jet develops in the Texas panhandle and this could lead to some spotty thunderstorms mainly along and west of highway 83. POPs for the most part will be kept under 40% due to the uncertainty of where the front/shortwave will line up but it does look like portions of southwest Kansas should see some rain tonight. Tuesday we should see the morning convection subside by midday and with some diurnal heating and instability combining with the next 700 mb shortwave moving into northwest Kansas providing the lift another round of scattered thunderstorms should develop in eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas by late afternoon and early evening. 3 km NAM/HRRR/and FV3 have been the most aggressive CAMs at this point showing a MCS complex moving from southeast Colorado into western Kansas. SPC has responded by putting areas along and south of highway 50 in a day 2 marginal risk for severe weather. We should see decent severe weather parameters with around 2000 J/kg CAPE and 40-50 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. This would support gusty winds and large hail. Tuesday night the ongoing storms should weaken through the night as 850 mb winds aren`t expected to stay strong enough to keep the complex going past highway 283 and the upper level lift will also weaken through the night. We will be left with mainly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Ensemble models continue to bring a chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms to western Kansas through the long term forecast. This is due to an upper level ridge over the Rockies Tuesday to move over the Plains Wednesday into this weekend. Meanwhile, an upper level long wave trough will dig into the western United States, ejecting shortwaves towards the plains. Moisture in the lower levels will continue to pool across the area during this time frame with continued southeast winds each day. Being the peak of the severe season there could be a few days where severe weather will be possible. Confidence is low on which days will bring the highest risk. Chances of measurable precipitation looks to be the highest across central Kansas with lesser amounts as you head west. As of now, ensembles show over 60 percent chance of 0.42 inches of rain or more across central Kansas Friday. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the upper 70s into the 80s with lows in the 50s to low 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 In general we should see VFR flight category and winds under 15 kts for all terminals during the time period. Late tonight (after 09Z) a weak frontal boundary and upper level disturbance could lead to some scattered thunderstorms mainly around DDC and HYS (20-30% chance of storms) between 09-15Z. If storms do form or move in close proximity to the terminals this could lead to cloud ceilings falling into the MVFR category. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Hovorka_42 AVIATION...Tatro