090
FXUS63 KDVN 201755
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1255 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms today

- Hot and humid Friday through Saturday

- Numerous thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night,
  severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Band of rain and a few thunderstorms have been slowly moving
northward across the area, mainly in eastern IA and northwest
IL. The bulk of the rain has stayed north and west of the Quad
Cities. Doppler radar has shown some locations picking up 2-3
inches of rain, considering the 00z/20 DVN sounding showed a
healthy PWAT of 1.74 inches.

Today: Warm front will continue to lift northward as the day
progresses with the band of showers pushing north of the
forecast area this morning. CAM`s then develops isolated storms
later this afternoon with peak heating. Shear continues to be
quite weak so no severe weather expected. However, locally heavy
downpours will occur. Highs will range from around 80 far north
to the lower 90s far south.

Tonight: A mainly dry night ahead as the thunderstorm clusters
shift into southern MN and eastern SD. Lows will be in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

This weekend: Global models similar in developing a stronger
trough and surface low tracking from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes region. This sweeps a cold front across our
forecast area Saturday afternoon and night, with numerous
thunderstorms expected. In fact, SPC has a SLGT Risk (Level 2 of
5) of severe storms along Highway 20, and a MRGL Risk (Level 1
of 5) across the remainder of the forecast area. Stay tuned for
any further updates to this outlook. The main threats appear to
be damaging winds, large hail, and torrential rainfall. Highs
in the lower to mid 90s on Saturday with heat indicies of 95 to
100. On Sunday, dry and not as hot with highs in the mid 80s
north to around 90 far south.

Early next week: Hot weather again especially on Tuesday with
highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Another cold front arrives on
Tuesday with another chance for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Some lingering MVFR CIGs through mid afternoon, but most areas
should lift to VFR by 3-4 PM. Isolated to widely sctrd showers
and thunderstorms may pop up mid to late afternoon, and linger
through at least mid evening. Hard to time and pin-point
location with the low coverage, but just covered the suspected
timing windows with VCNTY periods in the TAFs. Light and
variable sfc wind regime this afternoon and much of the night.
There may be some patchy fog under any clear skies late tonight,
but not enough confidence to place in the TAFs at this time.
VFR Friday morning away from any fog, with south to
southwesterly sfc winds increasing to 5-10 KTs by late morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...12