283
FXUS62 KFFC 100535
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Pretty quiet, but very hot this afternoon. Some temps may top out
just shy of 100F in our SE counties. Morning sounding also showed
very warm mid level temps with nearly +12C at 700mb, which should be
more than enough inhibit any convection this afternoon and early
evening until we can get some mid level upward motion and/or CAA
aloft.

Near-term CAM guidance has started backing off on chances for MCS
development overnight, perhaps due to capping inversion which likely
extends west into central AL where few if any cumulus have developed
based on VIS imagery. Boundary over northern MS and AL remains well-
defined and plenty of moisture and instability to work with as
SBCAPE values 3000-5000 J/kg in place over central MS and western AL
at this time. Even if storms fire, they may remain west of the area
as the MCS propagates ESE toward the higher low-level theta-e
values. Have backed off a little on PoPs overnight but may need to
continue trending them lower unless something more definitive
develops upstream.

Monday, larger-scale boundary should slide SE during the day and
take sfc forcing and moisture out of the CWA by 00Z, however am
concerned this front may push slower than forecast. Will likely
tweak PoPs for tonight and Monday one more time before finalizing
the forecast.

Atlantic basin still indicates no tropical activity expected the
next 7 days.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some notable changes to the long term forecast are in store with
this forecast update as models continue to struggle to come into
agreement over the midweek system affecting the northern Gulf. This
forecast update has daily rain and thunderstorm chances shifting
further south than previous forecasts, relegating the best chances
for precipitation in the CWA across south central Georgia. With the
broad trough making its exit off the east coast, another shortwave
embedded within the mid-level flow will swing through Wednesday and
Thursday as weak surface cyclogenesis hugs the Gulf Coast. PoPs have
also dropped off with this southward shift, where slight chance to
low end chances for precipitation are now in play through the middle
of the work week. Additionally, PWATs have have moderated back to
1.5-2.0+" as the surface low likely stays further south of our area.
As the surface low begins to push northeast by the end of the week
as a ridge builds in from the west, the chance for rain and
thunderstorms will expand northward through the weekend. At this
time, no significant severe weather impacts with storms are
anticipated, though a few strong storms may be possible producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Small-ish cluster of showers and thunderstorms will drop SE early
this morning and should begin to impact ATL around 0630Z-07Z. Do
expect some bkn MVFR as the storms move over the field and right
after. BKN VFR possible for the remainder of the morning before
sct VFR cu and bkn mid level clouds. Winds will remain on the west
side.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.
NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  85  62  90 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         63  86  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     53  79  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    58  84  57  90 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        67  90  67  93 /  10   0   0  10
Gainesville     60  84  62  87 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           66  90  65  93 /  10   0   0  10
Rome            59  85  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  61  86  62  92 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         71  91  70  95 /  30   0  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...NListemaa