402
FXUS63 KFGF 201138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
638 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts is low over the next 7
  days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The low level stratus deck is holding strong over NW and West
Central Minnesota this morning between 2000-3000ft still. By 15z
these clouds should either lift over dissipate thanks to the sun
as its starting to rise and the solar radiation increases.
Otherwise looks to be a slightly breezy day in the mid to upper
70`s today.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Synopsis...

The residual trough axis is passing through the Northern Plains
this morning creating a low stratus deck and transition from a
southwest flow to a dry westerly flow. Looking a water vapor
there is a small swirl near Saskatchewan moving east at this
time. Model guidance suggest this will be the culprit for our
light showers tonight into Saturday morning.

Today and Saturday, The northern plains will remain stable today
with cooler temperatures in the crisp 70`s. The westerly flow
advects dry air into our region giving us sunny skies and may be a
couple clouds but otherwise a fairly good day to end the work week.
Late tonight into Saturday morning, A weak up shortwave quickly
passes through the Northern Plains placing us back into Northwest
flow with some gusty winds as the pressure gradient tightens with
the passing of the shortwave. NBM probs for exceeding 0.25inches of
rain are all below 15 percent. Deterministic Guidance displays QPF
values of generally under a tenth of an inch for most places with a
few isolated places receiving under two tenths further solidifying
the confidence this shortwave will remain unimpactful.

Sunday and Beyond, Sunday and Monday looks to remain dry as we
transition back into a dry westerly flow. Tuesday gets a little
tricky as model and ensemble guidance disagrees about what is going
to happen. There is a shortwave going to move through the Northern
Plains between Tuesday and Wednesday. The Canadian and GFS show a
deeper trough cutting through the Dakota Tuesday morning while the
Euro has more of an open wave/shallow trough still in Manitoba. Each
model has varying strengths with this wave as well with the GFS
wanting to almost cut it off and the Euro keeping it open. The
Canadian seems to be the happy middle of a deep open trough. Looking
at cluster analysis, it also shares this sentiment of uncertainty as
there are disagreements in magnitude of both the trough and the
trailing ridge behind it. Looking at 2pvu surface pressure, it also
places a maxima orb near Central North Dakota with a weak gradient
extending to the Northeast. This developing shortwave may either be
our next chance for precipitation or our continuing streak of sunny
days with 70 degree temps. Tuesday will be our next day to keep an
eye on to see how this wave further develops.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

KBJI is currently MVFR thanks to this stratus at 3000ft. By 15z
it should be VFR as the sun lifts or dissipates these low level
clouds. Starting around 00z the winds will temporarily shift to
the south and by 12z Saturday they should shift back to a more
westerly direction. 06z Saturday the shortwave will start to
move light showers across the Northern Plains. KDVL will be
affected first and by 12z Saturday the showers will be moved out
of the area. Not confident that the showers will make it to KFAR
during this time so it was left out of the TAFS. Under the
showers the winds will be variable but is expected to become
westerly behind these showers.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM