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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260153
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
853 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

No forecast changes needed at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Cool high pressure currently resides across the region. There is
an upper level ridge in place across the intermountain west...with
an embedded shortwave moving southeast across the central plains on
the leading edge of the ridge. The upper level ridge is forecast
to move out of the Rockies and into the central U.S. on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will shift east tonight allowing southerly
winds to increase across the area. But not before some fog forms
in the far southern zones. High resolution short term models have
indicated that there may be some fog in the Wahpeton/Fergus Falls
area tomorrow morning...but extent of the fog does not look too
large (perhaps extending northward to Crookston area). Also...as
the warm air moves in aloft tonight, low level clouds are expected
to increase across much of the area. These clouds will linger
through much of the day on Tuesday, but some areas may break out.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Expect generally quiet weather for the upcoming week, yielding a
slow snowmelt with little to no impacts through the weekend.

On Tuesday night through Wednesday, strong low level WAA advection
sets up under an axis of strong ridging aloft, yielding overnight
low temperatures near to above freezing. With recent daytime high
temperatures near to above freezing, some of the deterministic
models (primarily GFS) are forcing an unrealistically rapid
snowmelt, yielding a warm bias for mid week. The cooler air
lingering upstream in return flow (south) and high albedo from
remnant snowpack will likely yield cooler daytime temperatures than
forecast by this model. On the other hand, the GEM and NAM suggest
primarily west winds developing Wednesday afternoon following a
frontal boundary passage, which would be ideal for ramping up
daytime heating, but related model profiles have saturated low
levels indicative of lingering fog and/or low level clouds and
patchy drizzle. With multiple factors at play, will stick with
blended solution for now.

Winds shift northerly Wednesday evening, and the region falls under
the cooler and drier influence of northwest flow aloft for the end
of the work week through the upcoming weekend. On Thursday, surface
high pressure builds through the Northern Plains, and the region
remains quiet on Friday, transfixed between two precipitating
systems tracking through the Canadian Prairie and Central to
Southern Plains toward the East Coast. Looking into the upcoming
weekend, the northwest flow pattern becomes more active with
potential for a shortwave trough to bring a quick bout of light
precipitation to portions of the region, but there is no strong
signal for any impactful events at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019

Model guidance shows the best fog potential developing in the
Fergus Falls area by late evening, then possibly expanding
northward up the east side of the Red River Valley overnight.
This may be accompanied by a lower stratus layer, which may last
well into the day Tuesday. Winds should remain light through the
evening, then become a little steadier from the south on Tuesday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Godon