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000
FXUS63 KFGF 261514
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1014 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Fog has dissipated. Cold front/wind shift line from north of
Bemidji to near Mahnomen to just northwest of Fargo then to near
Jamestown. Area of lower clouds dropping south behind the front
over E ND while farther north mid level moisture and a few showers
continue to move east along the Intl border. Meanwhile an area of
showers and isold thunder is moving northeast from the Bismarck
area and looks like will spread into east central ND as expected
thru the aftn with focus for showers near Hwy 2 or a tad south.
This covered well in the fcst.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Mid level shortwave troughs expected to split around our CWA,
however frontal zone north of Highway 2 will continue to shift south
in response to trough passage just north of International Border.
Scatter light showers have moved into our northwestern CWA and
should track eastward through the morning hours. This front will
stall just south of Highway 2 midday with temp gradient across our
CWA (highs 50s north 70s south).

Elevated frontogensis/deformation will support organization of
showers into band or redeveloping areas/periods of showers roughly
from Devils Lake by this afternoon to Grand Forks with isolated to
scattered coverage (and lighter amounts) elsewhere. Rainfall amounts
near 0.5" are favored by guidance in the Devils Lake Basin, but this
may be common along this axis. Front continues to shift south this
evening and eventually forcing becomes less organized, with coverage
should decreasing with southward progression overnight.

Organized forcing Sunday is south of our CWA, but we may still have
enough lift in our south to support scattered light showers
(confidence is decreasing with latest model trends and Monday may
remain dry). Temps will be near normal tonight generally from 40 to
50F. Highs Monday will be below normal though, and persistent cloud
cover may keep temps closer to the upper 50s in our south (middle
60s where there is clearing elsewhere).

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Mon night through Tue...

Nearly stationary boundary, having settled over an area proximal to
I-94/US10, will instigate scattered showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm near and south of this area Mon night into Tue. This
regime should keep high temps warmer up north, between 70 and 75,
while the mercury remains in the 60s under the clouds farther south.

Wed and Thu...

Dry and milder during the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures
are expected to be closer to seasonal norms, with afternoons
featuring low to mid 70s coupled with overnight lows of 45 to 50. A
boundary will still lurk near the International border at this time.

Fri and Sat...

This boundary is likely to proceed south into the forecast area on
Fri increasing rain chances. How far south this feature will sink is
still uncertain and this will ultimately impact the
coverage area of pcpn early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

Patchy fog (generally shallow in nature) developed this morning in
areas of clearing skies mainly across southeast ND and west
central MN with a few locations briefly dropping to 1/4 mile.
Overall impacts at KFAR, KBJI, KDVL have been brief with VFR
favored early in the TAF period. Scattered light rain showers
moving across northeast ND this morning will move along the
International Border, while another area of rain showers will
develop this afternoon/evening along the Highway 2 corridor with
MVFR impacts in moderate rain possible at KDVL and KGFK with
associated ceiling dropping to 3000 FT AGL or less. Rain should
shift south and decrease in coverage this evening/overnight
ceilings should improve back to VFR. Prevailing northeast winds
should generally remain 10kt or less though a few higher gusts
can`t be ruled out in ND with a frontal passage.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...DJR