Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 051351
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
851 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Shower and weak thunderstorm activity looks likely across at least
parts of Ransom and Sargent counties this morning. Have bumped up
the chance of rain in this area with this update and also made
minor tweaks of other variables based on latest trends. Lightning
has decreased significantly, but still think there could be a
strike or two yet before this band dies out, as it looks like it`s
doing based on the latest trends. An isolated lightning strike is
the main threat with this morning`s thunderstorm activity. More
activity is expected this afternoon, however.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

The strongest portion of the circulation moving through the FA is
moving into southeast North Dakota. There is still lightning
associated with this part. Water vapor imagery shows subtle
circulations within this broader wave, which continues to move
slowly to the south-southeast. It still seems a little slower than
expected. With morning heating, there should be more development
by afternoon around this feature. If this slower trend continues,
there may be a little more afternoon shower/thunderstorm
development than anticipated. Will continue to monitor trends this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Precipitation chances today are the main forecast concern. Water
vapor imagery shows a nice compact short wave centered over the
Rugby, North Dakota, area. There is still some lightning activity
associated with some convective elements on its southwest
periphery. However, trends elsewhere have been weakening. From
about midnight to about now, there has been a steady band of rain
from Devils Lake to New Rockford. Not heavy rain, but steady. If
the currently weakening trend continues, only expect spotty
rainfall across the western FA through sunrise.

What happens with the above mentioned feature for the rest of
today really depends on how fast it moves south-southeast. It
appears that recent model runs may have slowed this down some, so
it would either be across the far southern FA during peak heating,
or out of the FA entirely. So maintained precipitation chances
across the southwest, far south, and southeast FA today. With
such a nice compact wave, there is always a chance for a stray
funnel report. However, not expecting severe weather today. After
this feature moves out of the area, expect a return to quiet
weather again tonight into Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

The Thursday night through Tuesday period begins with zonal H5
flow becoming southwesterly on Friday. Weather related impacts are
possible Friday afternoon through midday Saturday in response to
thunderstorm activity.

The first half of Friday is expected to be quiet, with thunderstorm
chances increasing through the afternoon and evening hours. This
will be in response to a negatively tilted trough moving across
southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with a shortwave extending
southward into the Northern Plains. While the shortwave itself will
be rather weak, our proximity to the right entrance region of the
jet will facilitate synoptic forcing through the overnight and into
early Saturday. Ensemble disagreement still exists regarding
instability and overall severe potential. The ECMWF suite keeps the
best CAPE in South Dakota and Nebraska, with the GEFS bringing 3000
J/Kg values into the area, mainly west of the Red River. There will
be a chance for at least a few strong storms late Friday afternoon,
through the overnight into Saturday, with generally good support for
severe thunderstorms during this period.

Saturday afternoon will be defined by gradually clearing skies and
highs in the 80s. Our next chances for thunderstorm activity occurs
Sunday as another shortwave traverses the region. This activity is
expected to persist through midday Monday, with quiet weather
following on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2020

Was not confident enough to mention showers or thunderstorms at
any of the TAF sites today. Therefore the main challenge will be
cloud heights as this wave moves through. Have kept these heights
in the VFR range throughout. Wind speeds look to remain on the
lower end as well.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...Knutsvig
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Lynch
AVIATION...Godon


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