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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200102
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
702 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Adjusted POPs a bit for tonight. Some radar returns entering our
southwestern counties. Not much reaching the ground yet in our
area but some snow just to our west. Further north and east
conditions remain mostly clear and cold so will maintain wind
chill advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Fair skies over the northern Valley and northwest MN will see
only intermittent high clouds... with temperatures falling off
rapidly with sunset and bitter cold temps/wind chills overnight
into Sunday forenoon. Overall winds should stay fairly light
from the east-northeast which should prevent wind chills from
dropping into the warning range for northwest MN, while northeast
MN will likely see the coldest overnight temperatures.

Mid to high level clouds will thicken in over portions of east
central and southeast ND this evening as an approaching weak
mid-level system drops a snow band from southern Saskatchewan
into and across northwest and central portions of ND... likely to
just brush areas along and west of a Devils Lake to Valley City
and Lidgerwood line with a half inch to 2 inch amounts of snow.
Further east into Grand Forks and Fargo areas, only a trace of
snow is expected.

Note that decreasing low clouds and increasing blayer winds early
sunday /behind the system/ will allow temperatures to drop off
sharply in eastern ND and wind chills there to drop into the
minus 25 to minus 40 degree range by Sunday morning as well.

Low level flow and a slight warm advection does increase on
Sunday... as a more pronounced weather system approaches from the
west.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

Sunday night into Monday will see that approaching system begin
to impact the northern plains as a mid-winter warm front, with
accompanying light snow band, from late Sunday night through
Monday, with additional snow possible into Tuesday. Appreciable
snow is quite possible over portions of the tri-state area from
Monday into Tuesday... with heaviest amounts appearing more
likely from eastern SD into southern and central MN attm.

The Monday through Wednesday period should also see fairly mild
temperatures... with daytime highs well into the teens and even
low 20s nearer the SD border... and lows near and above zero.

The mid-range GFS and ECMWF models concur that our late week
period should see another sharp drop back into the much colder
and drier arctic air... with a broad central NOAM trof digging
down through our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 523 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019

VFR CIGs prevail through much of the overnight hours at most TAF
sites. MVFR CIGs may develop at KDVL as -SN works into the region
after 05Z. Widespread snowfall is not expected; however, we will
see light snow or flurry activity also at KGFK and KFAR with
visibility expected remain 6 miles or greater. Generally light
north to northeast winds are expected through early Sunday morning
with very cold overnight low temperatures.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     026-027-029-030-054.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for NDZ024-028-038-
     039-049-053.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ001>009-013>017-
     022>024-027-028-030>032.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for MNZ029-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Gust
AVIATION...Lynch