Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Included some patchy fog mention in the far eastern counties where
winds have been lighter, but think that winds picking up will keep
it from getting too dense.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

H5 ridging continues building into the region this afternoon with
mostly clear skies observed across much of area. We should see
temperatures reach the lower 80s this afternoon with lows tonight
falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture continues
advecting into the area with the 925 to 700mb winds tonight,
facilitating sustained higher dew points.

As we head into Monday, breezy south to southwest winds are
expected along with another day of lower to middle 80s. A few
locations could approach 90 degrees. Increasing cloudiness is
expected during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave
approaches the region. Slight precipitation chances are in the
forecast east of the Red River and along the I-94 corridor Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

One short wave lifts from eastern South Dakota early Tuesday morning
through the northwest quarter of Minnesota during the day Tuesday.
This is accompanied by a good low level jet and 850mb warm
advection. The low level jet actually looks to intensify during the
day and hold up into Tuesday night as well. SPC has areas along and
east of the Red River in a marginal risk for severe weather Tuesday
into Tuesday night. The exact details are pretty hard to nail down
this far out, as there will not be constant thunderstorms throughout
this entire time frame. Highs Tuesday should remain in the 80s with
stiff south surface winds as well.

A cold front should move through the FA sometime early Wednesday.
This will bring slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday (though
still in the 70s) along with gusty west winds. Any lingering
precipitation should slowly exit northeast into Canada. Wednesday
night into Thursday should be quiet, with highs Thursday remaining
in the 70s. This quiet period will be short lived, as it turns more
active again by Thursday night through Sunday. Although it will not
rain constantly throughout this time frame, there will be wet
periods. Pretty far out for the models to show much agreement with
timing and coverage, but the wave looks pretty strong.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Some fog starting to form around KBJI with vis bouncing between
1/4SM and 1SM. Think there should be some slow improvement
overnight as winds pick up a bit from the southeast, so have MVFR
vis setting up later tonight. KDVL is reporting some lower vis and
light rain also, but think it is an issue with the equipment. All
other TAF sites are VFR under clear skies. LLWS will increase out
of the southwest later tonight as the low level jet builds into
the Northern Plains. Less shear but more surface wind tomorrow as
speeds continue to pick up out of the southeast with gusts above
20 kts possible.




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