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000
FXUS63 KFGF 201744
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

With no surface visibility obstruction showing in our area and Air
Quality Index having markedly improved, have removed mention of
smoke from grids for the rest of today and tonight. Updated
Aviation Discussion is attached below.


UPDATE Issued at 1027 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Have lowered dewpoints and resultant RHs a tad across eastern ND
and the northern RRV... areas that missed the rain over the
weekend. Else, no other significant changes to the forecast
package anticipated through the midday period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Stratus and cirrus continue to influence low temperatures this
morning. Seeing middle 40s to the northwest, where skies are a bit
clearer with upper 50s to the southeast. A few remnant showers are
showing up on radar, mainly in Grant, Otter Tail, and Wadena
counties. These will slowly work southeastward as the upper low
moves to the southeast.

High temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 70s today and
will be dependent on a couple of factors. The first will be the
cloud cover that is expected to remain in place across the
southeastern portions of the CWA. For the remainder of the forecast
area, patchy smoke remains a factor as many of the mesoscale models
keep advecting it into the region from the north. For this reason,
the mention of patchy smoke remains in the forecast through tonight.

Northerly winds prevail today in the post-frontal environment. Areas
south of highway 2 and west of the Red River will see slightly
breezier conditions as gusts could approach 30 mph this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Tuesday-Wednesday night: Shortwave ridging at 500 mb begins to build
towards the Northern Plains, while northwest flow shifts towards
northern Minnesota and the Great Lakes. This should support
gradually rising temperatures and generally quiet weather. Smoke
could still impact our region, but flow shifts and source region
would determine impacts on our sensible weather (uncertain at this
point).

Thursday-Friday: Upper trough ejects out over the plains with a
closed mid level circulation show to pass over or near our CWA by
Thursday night and Friday. There is increasing agreement on this
track/general evolution and a stronger precip signal across our
south with ensemble and consensus blends. Further north though,
there is increasing spread and while some guidance supports
potential precipitation, unfortunately this may be another situation
where rain needy locations in our northern CWA could get missed. An
organized severe threat appears unlikely with weaker deep layer
shear advertised on current guidance, but there could be modest
instability that may support a few stronger updrafts. Greater impact
would be potential for heavy rain as consensus of models are still
showing higher PWATs in the 1.2-1.5" range over our CWA and we may
see deformation zone and additional back building along/behind
baroclinic zone.

Saturday-Sunday night: Flow remains progressive, with an additional
cold front passage possible Saturday. There is less consistency on
large scale/organized forcing, and there may be a trend towards the
parent shortwave trough remaining north lowering confidence in
additional precip.

Regarding temperatures through extended periods: Trend should be
towards near seasonal normals on highs/lows, with below normal temps
on some days associated with post frontal air masses. This would
generally place highs most days in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
lows in the 50s to near 60F.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

Expect VFR conditions in a light to moderate northerly blayer
flow through the day. Winds diminish with nightfall, but increase
again tomorrow forenoon... as light and northwesterly.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...Gust