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000
FXUS63 KFGF 141237
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

The forecast is on track this morning as surface winds are
gradually becoming southerly. Cirrus is being observed via
satellite and will need to be considered going forward through the
day. The high temperature forecast will depend upon how persistent
the cirrus remains and how much of the snow pack melts. If
sunshine is able to break through the high clouds, we will reach
our forecast highs, otherwise downward adjustments may be needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Westerly low to mid-level flow and southerly surface winds will
accommodate warmer temperatures across the region today. Due to
the snow pack in place in many locations, however, we will see a
delayed response to this warmer tendency. Highs today will be
highest along the western and southern CWA borders with colder air
prevailing longer to the north and east. Mostly sunny skies are
expected as well, which will facilitate widespread melting. Winds
will be breezy with southerly winds this afternoon in the 15 to 20
mph range with gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range, especially within
the central Red River Valley.

An upper trough approaches the area tonight with increasing cloud
cover heading into Thursday morning. Precipitation chances will also
increase along an 850mb FGEN axis as sunrise approaches.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

The main forecast challenge for Thursday into Friday will be the
mixed precipitation potential. Models are finally starting to agree
on a two part precipitation event, with the first moving in Thursday
into potentially Thursday night. While models agree on this first
short wave, they still differ in its placement. Continuity has shown
the best potential remaining along and north of the highway 2
corridor. However the Canadian model shows the band further south
and other models do extend the chances for light precipitation south
of the highway 2 corridor as well. Therefore this now gives most of
the FA at least a chance of some light precipitation Thursday into
Thursday night.

Exactly what phase this first round of precipitation falls as also
remains a challenge. Thermal profiles show there could be some mixed
precipitation, and will leave it as that for now. A second wave
moves in fairly quickly behind the first one, during the day Friday.
This system may just glance our FA, with the better potential being
over western North Dakota down into north central South Dakota. Not
great chances for mixed precipitation with this second wave, but
there may still be a low potential west of the Red River Valley.
After this Friday wave, the remainder of the long term forecast
looks pretty quiet, but it will stay on the cooler side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

VFR CIGs prevail today with a few mid to high level clouds
starting to work into the region later this afternoon and evening.
Winds will be out of the south much of the day before shifting
slowly to the southwest. Southerly wind speeds, especially within
the Red River Valley, will be in the 12 to 17 knot range with
gusts approaching the 23 to 27 knot range. This will persist from
midday through around sunset. Winds diminish thereafter with
increasing cloudiness and gradually lowering CIGs overnight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Lynch