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000
FXUS63 KFGF 260551
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1151 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

No further changes.

UPDATE Issued at 1003 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Freezing precip redevelops over eastern ND. Light freezing precip
continues across eastern ND and will slowly move east tonight. Will
issue a winter weather adv for eastern ND and western tier counties
in MN. Water vapor loop indicated an upper trough over southern SASK
with trough extending into south central ND. Warm advection precip
will continue over eastern ND.

UPDATE Issued at 652 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

An upper level trough was located over the western Great Lakes and
another was located over southern SASK. A short wavelength ridge was
over the area. Satellite loop indicated plenty of clouds across the
area. A narrow band of clearing was over central ND but was not
moving east very fast. Raised low temps a bit for tonight with
plenty of clouds across the area.

Radar indicated a thin band of light freezing rain/sleet over
eastern ND from Cando to west of Cogswell ND. Band continues to get
thinner and weaken.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

It continues to look like a mild and relatively quiet short term.
The main impacts will be from several chances of mixed
precipitation. If these occur, it doesn`t take much to result in
bigger impacts. However, at this point, think the coverage and
amounts will be low and light enough to stay on the minimal side.

The regional radars continue to show a line of echoes progressing
through central North Dakota. Surface observations and webcams do
not show too much actually reaching the surface from these mid
level clouds, but there has been some. The Minot airport
registered a hundredth of an inch and webcams there show wet
roads. The ND road condition webpage shows some ice covered roads
from Bismarck to Minot as well. There is a surface warm front
still west of a Minot to Bismarck line, so these echoes are more
associated with the 850mb warm front, which is further east of the
surface front. Models have been showing this line of light
precipitation drying up as it continues to move into eastern North
Dakota tonight. The 850mb and surface warm fronts seem to wash
out. However, some of these echoes should reach at least the far
western FA, from Cando to Devils Lake to Valley City, and will
carry mixed precipitation wording in these areas into the evening.

As for the next chance of mixed precipitation, that will be right
on the heels of the first one. Water vapor imagery shows a nice
wave over southern Saskatchewan, which models drop southeastward
late tonight into Sunday. For the most part, this should only give
a glancing chance for mixed precipitation to the west and
southwest FA, but will see what later model runs show. Like the
past several nights, wind speeds will lighten up tonight and there
could also be some fog around. This short wave will drop south of
the FA eventually, so that by Sunday night the mixed precipitation
hazard should end.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Good confidence in the lack of impactful weather remains through the
better part of the upcoming week, with the idea of a potential
clipper system heading into the weekend.

Split upper flow with a zonal flavor for the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest would be featured, with the slightest risk of a bit of
freezing drizzle or patchy light snow possible about Wed, as a weak
upper wave swings through. Toward Sat, a cold front trailing from
low pressure to the north in Canada, will offer a chance for light
snow. Minor accumulations are featured in the 50th percentile and
higher NBM data, most likely on Sat. The magnitude of WWA at this
time will determine the potential for FZDZ or even FZRA-, which has
been more prevalent with our recent warmer Jan temps.

Temps will remain above seasonal norms right on through next
weekend. Some ensemble members even indicate the possibility of
attaining above freezing temps at the sfc Fri/Sat. In general,
though, highs will be in the 20s with overnight lows well above
zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

Mostly IFR conditions were across much of the forecast area. Some
VFR conditions were the far northwest zones. Expect mostly IFR
conditions for tonight and Sun.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MNZ001>004-007-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JH