242
FXUS63 KFGF 201857
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
157 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather is expected through the evening across
  southeastern North Dakota. Look for RH values as low as 20
  percent with wind gusts up to 35 mph.

- There is a 50% chance for minor winter impacts Saturday night
  through Sunday night, with a 60% chance for 2 inches or
  greater in northwestern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

...Synopsis...

Pattern aloft remains northwesterly through the weekend and into
next week. Out of this flow we have two different chances for
precipitation, one later tonight and the second chance Saturday into
Sunday. The more robust system will be shifting through Saturday
into Sunday with accumulating snow chances across the area. Ahead of
the first system we have continued dry conditions, with temperatures
in the 50s. Satellite over the northern plains show high level
scattered to broken clouds over north central and northeastern North
Dakota with lingering snow pack in the Devils Lake Basin. This area
of lingering snow pack has cooler temperatures, with highs expected
to remain in the mid to upper 40s today. Winds are on the increase
across the area, with gusts reaching 35mph in portions of
southeastern North Dakota. Minimum RH values at this time are in the
30s within SE ND, where the higher winds are reported. This is where
we will see critical fire weather conditions this afternoon as RH
values drop to the 20 percent range. For further information on the
fire weather conditions please refer to the Fire Weather discussion
at the bottom of the AFD. Later this evening and overnight a cold
front will shift through bringing northerly winds and cooler
temperatures for Friday. Snow showers will be possible as the front
passes through. Temperatures will continue to oscillate through the
weekend, with highs in the 40s and 50s on Saturday and the 30s on
Sunday.

Our secondary system moves through the northern plains on Saturday
bringing rain, a wintry mix, and snow to the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Precipitation mode will be driven by temperatures, with areas in the
southern Red River Valley seeing rain longer than areas near the
International Border. Winds will be on the increase as the cold
front shifts through the area Sunday morning, with blowing snow
reducing visibilities at times. Post weekend, we will see
temperatures return to above normal, with flow turning zonal across
the northern plains.

...Winter Impact Potential...

Out of the NW flow aloft we have a robust system moving through
southern Canada and into the northern plains late Saturday and into
Sunday. Temperatures will drive the precipitation mode as the system
shifts through the area. Most areas will start out as rain, with a
transition over to a wintry mix and then snow as colder air wraps
around the system. Uncertainty arises with the strength of the
system and any frontogentic forcing. Some of the guidance (30%) want
to push strong frontogentic forcing, a closed upper level low, and
higher moisture through the area resulting in higher QPF and
snowfall. While the rest of the guidance wants to have an open upper
level low, strong synoptic forcing, and weaker Fgen. This results in
minor impacts and accumulations across portions of the area. The
cold front associated with the system moves through during the late
overnight and early morning on Sunday bringing breezy northerly
winds. Any area that has falling snow and breezy conditions could
see reductions to visibility. How severe these reductions will be is
uncertain at this time due to low predictability in the aerial
coverage of the snow and overlapping of falling snow and winds.

Right snow the probability to see over 2 inches is 60% for areas in
north central MN through lakes country points east. Areas further
west have a 30-40% chance for over 2 inches. The probability for
minor impacts (advisory impacts) are 50% for areas in north central
MN and 20-30% for the Red River Valley points west. We will continue
to monitor the latest on the upcoming system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

VFR conditions continue this afternoon, with SCT to BKN clouds
moving through the region. Winds are starting to slowly increase
this afternoon out of the SW, with gusts approaching 30 kts for
FAR, GFK, TVF, and DVL through the early evening. A wind shift
is expected after midnight toward the north as a front passes
through. Ceilings drop to MVFR as the front passes through for
DVL. GFK, TVF, BJI, and FAR may see brief moments of MVFR
during this time. Isolated chances for flurries or a brief snow
shower along the front as its shifts through during the
overnight period into the early morning hours tomorrow. Winds
increase end of the TAF period, with skies turning FEW to SCT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

Minimum RH values continue to drop this afternoon, as plentiful
sunshine has helped warm temperatures into the 50s. Winds have
started to increase out of the SW and will continue to be breezy
through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours.
Sustained winds of 15-25mph are expected, with gusts up to 35 mph.
As we reach peak daytime heating, temperatures will reach the mid to
upper 50s and dew points will remain in the teens to lower 20s. This
will result in minimum RH values in the 20 percent range this
afternoon through portions of the evening hours. Critical Fire
Weather is expected due to the breezy conditions and the low RH
values. We will start to see improvement as temperatures slowly drop
later this evening and into the overnight hours as a cold front
begins to approach from the north. As the front moves through, winds
will shift toward the north. The time frame of the front passage for
SE ND is around the 10pm to 1am time frame. There is some
uncertainty with the spatial area of the fire weather concerns, as
there is a chance for near critical conditions in west central MN
and into the central Red River Valley. Conditions will be monitored
through the afternoon and evening if adjustments are needed. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for Barnes, Cass, Sargent, Ransom, and
Richland counties through 7 pm this evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ038-039-
     049-052-053.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Spender
FIRE WEATHER...Spender