Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 040028

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
628 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

Issued at 624 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

Mid clouds from SE Manitoba into north central MN moving
southeast. Otherwise mainly clear over E ND and WC MN, other than
some thin cirrus. No impacts this evening, and then overnight into
Thu AM will watch for some potential for low cloud development in
our western fcst area along with patchy fog. Fog signal among the
various short term models is showing higher chances in eastern BIS
fcst area but overall spotty coverage. Low cloud signal is higher
but much uncertainity with that.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 240PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

Any weather impacts in the short term will revolve around
fog/stratus development overnight into tomorrow morning and their
influence on tomorrows highs. SFC high pressure to the east and
increasing ridging over the northern plains will continue tonight
into Thursday. As it does southeast winds will remain rather light
and clouds will be the primary influence on temps overnight and
tomorrow. Guidance suggests clouds and possibly fog develop from
the southern valley into the Devils Lake basin overnight with
temps in the low 20s. Could be higher if and where clouds form in
SE ND. NBM spread for highs tomorrow quite wide at DVL from upper
30s to upper 40s with less spread to the east where clouds are
less likely and early March sun will help temps rise into the low
to mid 40s tomorrow afternoon. Concern about the clouds tomorrow
stems from weak flow and poor mixing. If a layer of thick low
clouds form it maybe difficult to burn them off, limiting temps
tomorrow afternoon especially across portions of eastern ND.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

Impactful weather is likely to be restricted to the very end of the
extended forecast period, when the notion of a Colorado low-type
system enters the forecast picture.

Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions are in the offing
as the region will be under the influence of a building upper ridge,
while troughs remain anchored over both coasts. Ensembles agree
generally on the warmth and lower PWAT values, with a signal for
breezy to windy conditions over the weekend when temps should be at
their zenith. A record high temp or two will not be out of the

A shift to a more southwesterly upper pattern is likely during the
beginning of next week, portending a change to more active weather.
There are differences in the 500 mb cluster depictions, ranging from
confluent to diffluent flow aloft and trough placement, but
precipitation panel means do offer in the neighborhood of 0.25
inches of QPF for our region. Questions that will eventually be
answered revolve around storm tracks, rain versus snow pcpn type
owing to the slow movement of the system and presence of warm air,
and actual precipitation volume.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CST Wed Mar 3 2021

Expect VFR conditions RRV and thru MN during tonight and Thursday.
Large degree of uncertainity in regards to low cloud development
in the Devils Lake area to Valley City overnight into Thu AM.
Short term models indicate it but lack of low level moisture
increase lends to more uncertainity if this will occur. But did go
ahead with model consensus and bring in IFR cigs late tonight thru
midday for DVL area.



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