032
FXUS63 KFGF 151726
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1226 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong westerly winds will continue today over much of the
  region, bringing the potential for blowing dust impacts again
  through much of the afternoon.

- Dry conditions along with the winds will bring critical fire
  weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all
  counties through late this evening.

- There is a 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday
  afternoon and evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Winds at our more northern sites are gusting up into the 40 to
50 mph range. So far not as much blowing dust as yesterday,
although the visibility at Grand Forks airport just dropped to 2
miles. Will continue to monitor, but so far the wind and red
flag headlines look good and there hasn`t been enough low
visibility reports for a blowing dust advisory quite yet.

UPDATE
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Sustained wind speeds this morning are generally ranging from
15-20 mph along and north of Highway 200, with slightly lighter
winds to the south. The upper low passes to our north later
today, with the best support for stronger wind gusts being along
the International Border, southward to roughly the I-94
corridor. Blowing dust, along with reduced visibility, is
likely once more today, albeit a bit less widespread than
yesterday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Strong upper low rotating over Saskatchewan will move east
tonight. The surface low will continue to move slowly across
southern Canada, with the trough axis currently extending down
into eastern ND moving off into MN. Pressure gradient in our
western counties is starting to relax just a bit as the trough
axis comes in, but plenty tight in northwestern ND close to the
surface low. The strong southerly winds that are bringing our
blowing dust and dropping vis close to a quarter of a mile in
some spots will decrease a bit late this afternoon. Behind the
through axis, there will be a decent pressure gradient along
with some cold air advection. Model soundings have mixing all
the way up to 700mb, and although the jet is not quite as
strong, there is plenty of momentum to mix down. Winds at least
across the northern portions of the CWA will pick up again
tonight and tomorrow, with probabilities of wind gusts over 40
mph at 50 percent along and north of I-94 and 80 to 100 percent
along and north of Highway 2. Extended wind advisory for all but
our southern and eastern counties through tonight and tomorrow.

While definitely could see another day of blowing dust this
afternoon into Friday, this time from the west instead of the
south, confidence in exactly where and how low visibility will
go is uncertain. Most likely will be expanding the blowing dust
advisory into Devils Lake Basin and upper Sheyenne in addition
to the RRV through 00Z as the west winds start coming in this
evening. Will wait and see if any more dust products are needed
beyond that tonight and tomorrow. The west winds will bring
even lower RHs, as current values are around 20 percent. There
will be a little bit of recovery tonight as RH values come up
into the 40 and 50s, but fire danger will remain high. Afternoon
RH values in all of our area should get down to 20 to 25
percent. Winds will be 20 to 25 mph even outside of the wind
advisory area. Thus, expanded the Red Flag warning to all of our
counties from now until 9 pm tomorrow.

Will finally see a break in the wind on Saturday as surface high
pressure builds in behind the departing low. Southwesterly flow
aloft sets up for Sunday with a lead shortwave trough coming
out. The main surface low seems like it will be over SD/MN/WI
Sunday into Monday, with better moisture over our area than the
current system. The ECMWF EFI has a decent signal for some
precipitation, and NBM has a over 60 percent chance CWA-wide for
over a quarter of an inch of rain. There is even 50 to 60
percent chance of over an inch of rain by 06Z Monday across
portions of southeastern ND and west central MN. Some of the
ensembles have some instability creeping into our far
southeastern counties Sunday afternoon, although others keep
even elevated CAPE under 500 J/kg. Plenty of deep layer shear
though, so will have to watch for any severe thunderstorm
chances that day.

The main upper trough finally moves out into the Plains for the
first part of next week, eventually becoming more northwesterly
again by Thursday. Temperatures will be cooling down again back
down below seasonal averages, with a few minor precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Some BLDU at KGFK has dropped visibility into the MVFR to IFR
range, but other TAF sites have remained VFR. Some of less
sheltered airports, all but KBJI, could see some BLDU later
today, but will keep it 6 miles and above until it actually
develops. Winds will slowly start to decrease this evening, with
gusts dropping below 30 kts around sunset. Winds will drop even
further during the overnight hours to below 12 kts, but will
pick up again out of the northwest late morning tomorrow with
some gusts above 20 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>015-022-027.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/Rafferty/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Lynch