Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 212039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

A somewhat broad/flat H5 ridge across the western U.S. at this
time is keeping a seasonably mild and dry airmass over the area
...with fair skies Evident across the northern Plains. Surface
high pressure now pushing in from the western Dakotas should lead
to increased low level cool advection from the evening into
overnight periods under a light northwest wind. After near normal
daytime highs today, overnight lows should settle perhaps a tad
below long term normal lows... generally in the low 30s.

Through Monday forenoon, a shortwave trof digging into northwest
Ontario will push a bit of cooler air and lower level clouds down
through the Lake of the Woods area, with fair skies still expected
across the Red River Valley and points further west. Daytimes
highs temperatures will stay a bit cooler than normal while
northwest winds increase from 10 to 20 mph by afternoon. Overall
dry conditions should persist throughout the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Expecting dry weather for the Tue and Wed time period but a 500 mb
trough descending from Canadian prairies will move temps from near
average to below that mark on Tue featuring highs in the low to mid
40s. High pressure to blanket the region along with 850 mb temp
residing several degrees below 0C for most of this time.

Upper ridging over Northern Plains becomes more prevalent by Wed as
deeper troughs/lows become anchored west of British Columbia and
over northeast CONUS. Should see resulting rebound in surface temps
at this time, with highs reaching near 50 degrees.

By Thu pretty good synoptic/NAEFS/GEFS signal for increasing PWATS
with a shortwave or two traversing the forecast area. This looks
more like a higher POP/low QPF scenario, covering the period fr om
Wed night through early Fri. Pcpn type will favor rain, with a hint
of a little snow mixing in either late night/early morning over NW
MN. After that, see a sharper NW flow developing to end the week
into the weekend that will be a harbinger of colder temps to come.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Updated at 337 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Fair skies and light west-northwest winds will continue through
the rest of the afternoon... with winds turning more from the
northwest during the overnight. Expect fair skies with an
increasing northwest flow on monday. Areas of low VFR clouds
will track across far northwest MN during the midday hours.




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