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000
FXUS63 KFGF 110858
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
357 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Surface high pressure centered over Minnesota will slowly shift
into southern WI through the day today, with light and variable
winds over the area turning from the south by midday and
increasing at from 10 to 15 mph. A weak shortwave H5 ridge aloft
will move in overhead and with increased subsidence aloft lead to
generally fair skies trough the day. Sat imagery shows a band of
thin cirrus slowly dropping southward through the the area now and
likely to exit the area through the forenoon period. Surface
dewpoint temperatures are still quite low across the area and
range from single digit values into the teens and lower 20s. With
nearly neutral low level temperature advection daytime highs
should finally climb to near normal ranges today, ranging through
the lower to middle 60s.

Fair skies and a light southerly flow will persist into the
evening and overnight periods, and with some mixing persisting
through the overnight our low temperatures should remain above
the freezing point across the area.

On Wednesday. low level southerly flow and some weak low level
moisture advection will increase in advance of an approaching H5
shortwave trof. Daytime highs could reach from the middle 60s to
near 70 degrees, along with widely scattered mid level clouds in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Chances for precipitation remain in the forecast late this week
and into next week, with temperatures remaining warmer throughout
the period. High temperatures will remain on the warmer side in
the low 70s and upper 60s with lows in the 40s throughout the
week.

A mid-level ridge will move east of the area beginning mid-week,
which allows for a small disturbance to make its way into the
northern plains over the weekend. With this slight disturbance
comes a slight chance of precipitation, that increases in coverage
into early next week. Guidance has not yet come to consensus on
how much precipitation we will receive, but it appears likely that
most of the Red River Basin will see at least some measurable
amount. Greatest chance for the most rainfall appears to be on the
North Dakota/South Dakota border into west central Minnesota.
CAPE is low throughout the span of this event, but a few isolated
rumbles of thunder could be possible over the weekend as coverage
increases. As for timeframe, the greatest chance for measurable
precipitation is going to be over the weekend and possibly into
next week, with the possibility of some showers moving through the
area as we end this work week. Thursday looks to be a day in the
extended where near critical fire weather conditions could be
possible. This, of course, hinges on the timing of any possible
showers moving through the area at the time, which would mitigate
these conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Updated at 350 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Fair skies and light winds this morning, with winds turning form
the south by midday at 6-10 kts in northwest MN and 8-14 kts in
eastern ND. Light southerly winds and fair skies will persist into
tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Riddle/Gust