Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 021457
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
957 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain spreads north Saturday night into Sunday and exits east
  Sunday night and Monday. A 60 percent chance of an inch or
  more in some locations. There is a 20 percent chance for
  thunder Sunday evening near the South Dakota border.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024

Pockets of dense fog have become prevalent across portions of
the northern Red River Valley with improving conditions
expected around noon for the most affected areas. Have issued a
short term SPS for the fog in said areas to aid messaging.
Otherwise forecast for today remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024

The hole in the clouds is expanding slightly from Cavalier to
west of Grand Forks. In this area temps drop a bit and there is
some patchy fog. The rest of the forecast area remains in the
lower clouds. Per usual 12z time frame, ceilings are lowering
and getting a bit more fog (mostly 3-4SM). Webcam views show
fog behaving. No changes otherwise, but much uncertainty in
regards to cloud trends later today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...Synopsis...

Western Canada and western U.S. 500 mb trough to start the
weekend. Northern short wave is over southern British Columbia
and will move northeast and have no impacts on our area.
Stronger wave moving southeast and will be at the base of the
upper trough over Arizona and New Mexico late Sunday. Ahead of
this more southern short wave will be a long feed of moisture
(sfc-500 mb) which will spread north the next 24 hours.

Next week will see the Arizona short wave move northeast while
the western Canadian short wave moves northeast as well. An
elongated upper trough will be present, positively tilted, mid
week with some light precip chances Tues-Wed.

SSW flow aloft will re-establish itself by late week and next
weekend with precip chances increasing by next Saturday.

...Today...

500 mb short wave that was in NW SD is in northern MN at 06z.
The precip with this wave which was diminishing as forecasted
is over NE MN. Net result over eastern and central ND and
northwest MN is extensive low level moisture and cloud cover.
Near calm winds to start today...will lead to areas of fog in E
ND. Though main fog in terms of lower vsbys likely to be tied to
any holes of clearing that form or along the west edge of the
low cloud deck more in western ND. Will monitor fog, but for now
the areas and patchy fog mentioned for RRV and west seem
reasonable.

Getting into that time of the year when clearing of the lower
clouds is getting more questionable. Do think some clearing will
take place but full clearing is uncertain. This will have to be
monitored for short term aviation trends.

...Tonight-Monday...

850 mb winds of 40kts spread north into the area tonight into
Sunday and with it an increase of 850 mb dew pts from -8/-10C at
18z Sat to +8C by 09z Sun. Initial moisture increase looks to be
focused into central and eastern ND heading into tonight and
Sunday. Then rain chances taper off from the west Sun night into
Monday as main moisture shifts east. Overall WPC QPF shows high
chances of around 0.75 inch on average. NBM probs indicate 40-60
pct chance of 1 inch or more of rain in the 48 hour period 00z
18Z Sat to 18z Mon. Some thunder possible in SE ND late Sunday.
PWATs over 1 inch forecast as well in E ND and western MN, so
this would support potential for 1 inch rainfall. For most areas
this will be beneficial rains due to the dry fall. Harvest is
mostly done as well.

..Beyond Monday...

Main moisture moves east and cooler air moves back in with some
weak short waves and small chances for light rain showers
mainly Wednesday for western and north central ND. Next 500 mb
south to southwest flow event sets up late next week and next
weekend and timing differences exist between all the global
models. Temperatures suggest any precipitation will remain
liquid as temps remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024

11z-12z obs showing their usual downturn, with many sites IFR
east and west of the valley with low ceilings. Clear area
Cavalier to Grand Forks airport and this causing some patchy
fog. The whole idea of how things transition today sky cover
wise is uncertain. Should see improved conditions at least with
rising ceilings midday into MVFR range at least.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle