Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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923 FXUS63 KGRR 031737 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 137 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Morning Fog, Warm and Rain-Free Daytime, Chance Storm Tonight - Medium/High Confidence in evolution of upper troughing this week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1028 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 We were able to let the marine dense fog advisory go as planned this morning without any issues. The patch of dense fog along the shoreline was pushed offshore by the increasing wind from the SSE. Winds should remain high enough that the fog should not become an issue there in the foreseeable future. With regards to the forecast for the land areas today/this evening, the already low shower/storm chances continue to trend down for the area. The models indicate that the sufficient instability will mainly stay over Wisconsin through early evening. By the time what is left over from the Wisconsin convection and short wave arrives in the NW corner tonight, any diurnal instability will be mostly gone. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - Morning Fog, Warm and Rain-Free Daytime, Chance Storm Tonight Airport observations, webcams, and nighttime microphysics satellite imagery indicate regions of fog in a few different parts of the area, and variable visibilities within those regions including occasional dips to a quarter mile. Fog should mix out over land by 8 or 9 AM with a fair amount of sunshine today. Keeping the forecast rain-free until after 7 or 8 PM based on the 00Z HREF, which is slightly later with the timing than the previous 12Z run. Convection from Iowa to Wisconsin and northern Illinois today will struggle to make it into Michigan with slight ridge amplification over the eastern Great Lakes and a lack of upper-level jet support. Somewhat better dynamics and 850-700 mb moisture advection arriving after 8 PM will provide better chances of a thunderstorms from Wisconsin being maintained, especially northwest of Grand Rapids. CAPE less than 500 J/kg would be a limiting factor especially with eastward extent. Each model within the HREF has its own take on the decay of the Wisconsin convection over Michigan tonight, so confidence in the details is low. - Medium/High Confidence in evolution of upper troughing this week There remains good agreement among model solutions with the closed upper low approaching from the northwest this week. This low figures in the evolution of persistent troughing across the Great Lakes by the end of the week with lower 500 mb heights and low level northwest flow indicating cooler than normal temperatures into early next week. As far as rain chances,Tuesday will see some showers and thunderstorms in moist southerly flow ahead of the upper low with the best chances on Wednesday as a cold front will focus rain and embedded thunderstorms. Deep layer shear is progged to be 25 to 30 knots on Wednesday afternoon so some organized convection is possible, although severe storm threat appears low. The upper low will bring showery and seasonably cool weather for several days from late week into early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High confidence for VFR at the terminals through 00Z. There is a low chance for very brief (less than an hour) minimal MVFR ceiling restrictions (above 4000 feet). Otherwise, only other change was to remove VCTS from MKG overnight based on latest guidance. Did keep VCSH in the 03Z-09Z timeframe, but even this may be on the generous side. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Areas of dense fog are present along the shore especially between Holland and Ludington, as indicated by satellite images and webcams. Expecting the fog should diminish later this morning as southerly winds increase. Waves build to 1 to 3 feet today, highest near the Sable Points. May have to contend with thunderstorms crossing the lake after 7 PM, though models suggest they will be on a weakening trend. Additional thunderstorms could affect the nearshore waters between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...NJJ DISCUSSION...Ostuno/CAS AVIATION...TJT MARINE...CAS