Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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865 FXUS64 KHUN 032328 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 628 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Convective activity continues to develop W/SW of the area over parts of MS in closer proximity to a weak upper shrtwv. Latest guidance keeps much of these showers/tstms just west of the mid TN Valley thru the afternoon hrs, although a few showers/tstms may spread into parts of NW AL before the onset of the evening period. As this lead upper shrtwv crosses into the area later tonight, low to medium chances (30-50%) of showers/tstms are expected to develop over much of the area, especially heading into early Tue morning. Brief heavy rainfall will be the main threat with any of these showers/tstms. Overnight temps will be similar to this morning, with lows mainly in the mid/upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Increasing showers/tstms are expected Tue into Wed, as additional weak upper shrtwvs traverse eastward across much of the region. PWATs climbing to around 1.7-1.8 inches coupled with SBCAPE values near 2-3K J/kg will result in the prob for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall along with the potential for gusty outflow winds. Minimal deep layer shear though should offset the prob for more organized/stronger storms. Nevertheless, the potential for minor flooding/ponding is possible thru mid week. High rain chances (around 70-90%) are expected both Tue/Wed, with relatively medium chances (50-60%) of showers/tstms possible Wed night, as buoyant energy weakens just a bit. Given the increase in rainfall, highs thru mid week look to trend more in the lower/mid 80s, while lows thru Wed night remain predom in the mid/upper 60s. Rain chances will begin to taper off to the S/E late Wed night, as a weak cold front draped west to east drops into the Mid South/mid TN Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 By Thursday, the shortwave axis will be off the Atlantic Coast and a sfc front will move its way through the area. This will bring an end to showers and storms from north to south Thursday morning, but will maintain low chance (20-30%) PoPs during the afternoon giving model differences in timing at this range. Highs will be near seasonal norms in the mid to upper 80s with clearing skies during the afternoon. A stronger sfc front will arrive Friday, reinforcing dry and cooler conditions as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will be limited to the lower 80s Friday afternoon as sfc high pressure drifts south. From there, we will stay under the influence of northwest flow through the remainder of the long term forecast. Overnight lows will be relatively chilly Friday night into Saturday morning, falling into the upper 50s in the higher terrain and near 60 degrees elsewhere. Low chance PoPs (20-30%) will return late in the weekend as a series of weak shortwaves are progged to move into the area, also bringing better moisture. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions were present at issuance. The storms from this afternoon have since weakened, with lingering showers across the local area. Low to medium (20-40%) chances for showers (and possibly a storm) continues overnight. Shower and storm chances then ramp up through Tuesday morning and especially by the afternoon, when medium to high chances (60-80%) are forecast area- wide. Slight reductions in VIS are possible in the heaviest showers/storms. Patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Tuesday morning as well, along with lower (MVFR) CIGs Tuesday morning. Mostly VFR conditions are then anticipated by Tuesday afternoon. Southerly winds will become light overnight, then increase to be between 5-10 knots by early Tuesday afternoon. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26