275
FXUS62 KILM 300601
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
145 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and relatively cooler conditions are expected
through the end of the week with high pressure dominating.
Unsettled weather returns towards early next week as the high
moves offshore.

&&

.UPDATE...
A weak trough along the coast will move offshore overnight as
surface high slowly builds in from the northwest. Going forecast
is on track and no changes planned.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dewpoints some 10 degrees lower than yesterday have kept the area
rain-free despite the warm afternoon. This same dry advection will
preclude fog tonight in a light NW flow regime. This continues into
Thursday as high pressure continues to build in from the north. A
weak sense of CAA will also keep highs in the low 80s Thursday
instead of the upper 80s of the previous few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet short term period. Most notable change is the increase in POPs
for NE Pender Thursday night due to a mostly dry cold frontal
passage. Precip will be dependent on the return flow around the
departing offshore low battling the already dry air in place. Any
measurable rainfall will likely be near a tenth of an inch. Could
see an increase down the line for early Friday as well should there
be any lingering moisture, but still low chances and rainfall
amounts. Otherwise, dry conditions under building high pressure.
Cloud cover expected to increase Sat, mostly in the form of high
clouds, as the center of the high begins to move offshore. Highs in
the low to mid 80s with lows in the 50s, coolest Fri night in the
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The center of the high looks to push offshore late Sat into Sun with
increasing precip chances. The high looks to settle to our south
with moisture funneling in from the SW, leading to diurnal shower
and storm chances. This pattern will also lead to steady warming
through early next week, with temperatures near to slightly above
seasonable norms by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another CFP during these pre-dawn hrs will result in calm winds
becoming NNW-N 5 to 9 kt which should carryover thru the daylight
Thu hrs. The exception will be along the immediate coast where a
pinned sea breeze will develop in the aftn and flirt with CRE/MYR
winds. Winds drop off to variable 3 kt or less after sunset Thu.
Periodic cloud ceilings generally in the 7k to 10k foot level
from now til this aftn, mainly SKC for this evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sun. Isolated convection Mon could
result in brief MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday... With a surface front stalled offshore winds
will remain light out of the NW this evening. They will turn to the
S ahead of the next moisture-deprived boundary later tonight
followed by a return of NW flow behind it heading into Thursday. As
a stronger high then builds from the north wind speed will increase
a category or two.  Swell energy remains pretty negligible so
today/tonight`s small wind waves will build by a foot tomorrow due
to the strengthened gradient.

Thursday Night through Monday... Sub-SCA conditions with high
pressure moving offshore late this weekend. Light and variable winds
will become NEly near 10 kts Fri where they`ll remain until the
center of the high moves offshore late Sat. Winds will then be SEly
Sun and SWly Mon as the high continues to move away. Seas 1-3
ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ABW
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...MBB/LEW