Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 261900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

High pressure will maintain quiet weather overnight. Shower
chances return tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front.
Thunderstorm chances peak on Monday night and Tuesday with the
frontal passage. Scattered showers and storms return to the
forecast by mid-week as the front lingers offshore. Next
weekend will feature a return to typical afternoon storm chances
and warmer temperatures.


An upper ridge centered over the Arklatex region continues to
control the weather here in the Carolinas. A subsidence
inversion analyzed on this morning`s CHS sounding between
6000-9000 feet AGL is effectively capping off our daytime
cumulus, keeping the area dry. Inland temps have reached the
90s, but with dry air aloft getting entrained into the deep
mixed layer, heat indices are no higher than the actual air

Surface high pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will weaken
tonight as the upper ridge breaks down and retrogrades deeper
into Texas by Monday. This is due to an impressive shortwave
trough diving southeastward through the Great Lakes. With the
weakening ridge aloft, we should finally lose our subsidence
inversion late tonight. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will finally be able to develop Monday afternoon
within a weakly unstable airmass (CAPE 500- 1000 J/kg) with lift
provided by an approaching surface cold front and weak 500 mb
vort max. For now it appears the best chances for measurable
rain Monday will exist near and west of I-95 (30-50 percent)
with any significant rain potential waiting until evening along
the coast.


Cold front approaches the area on Monday night and will provide
widespread shower chances as it crawls eastward overnight.
Onshore flow ahead of the front will provide warm humid air into
Tuesday morning with low temperatures returning to the upper
60s and lower 70s.

The boundary pushes offshore on Tuesday, but should provide a
focused convergence zone for afternoon convection to flourish
inland and near the coast. Slow storm motion and training
thunderstorms could lead to areas of heavy rainfall with the
severe risk on Tuesday looking to be low at this time. Some dry
air may work its way in behind the front and could lead to a
strong wind gust or two in the best storms of the day, but the
potential remains low at this time.

Front stalls just offshore late Tuesday and may provide some
additional showers for the immediate coast overnight. There is
potential for some additional showers inland after sunset as
weak mid-level waves travel along the SW-NE boundary. Overnight
lows a little cooler with the drier air trickling-in; upper 60s
by Wednesday morning.


Stationary front will remain just offshore on Wednesday and
will be the focus for another round of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly along the coast with enhanced convergence
near the sea breeze. Temperatures slightly below normal behind
the front and with the help of cloud cover. Wednesday`s high
temperatures in the mid 80s

Warmer on Thursday with highs around 90 along the coast and in
the lower 90s inland. The air mass will continue to moderate
late next week and into the weekend with highs creeping a degree
or two higher each day. Low to mid 90s expected by Sunday.

The stationary front shifts slightly farther offshore on
Thursday, but could still provide enough lift and extra
convergence near the coast and in eastern SC for scattered
storms. With the available instability generated by temperatures
in the lower 90s, the weakening boundary will decrease overall
rain chances only slightly. SE onshore flow and warm, humid air
will maintain typical afternoon convection chances over the
holiday weekend, slightly less coverage than previous days.


VFR with light mainly southeast winds, veering southwest on

Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms will bring
temporary MVFR/IFR conditions at times Monday night through
Wednesday. Convective activity should become less common
Wednesday night through Friday as the front retreats north.


Through Monday... 1021 mb high pressure centered off the Mid
Atlantic coast is producing light onshore winds across the
coastal Carolinas this afternoon. The high will weaken tonight
as a cold front approaches from the west, veering wind
directions around to the south by late tonight. Since the front
won`t reach the coastal waters until sometime Monday night,
winds should remain southerly during the day Monday.

A 9-second easterly swell will remain the dominant wave through
Monday, overlaid with occasional small wind chop associated
with the afternoon seabreezes today and Monday. Combined seas
should average 2-3 feet this evening, then 2 feet overnight into

Monday Night Through Thursday... A cold front will approach the
area Monday night and winds over the coastal waters will
increase under the compressed gradient. S/SW winds increase to
10-15 knots ahead of the weak frontal boundary. After showers
and storms move through the area Monday night, the surface
trough will move offshore, bringing NW winds early Tuesday.
Winds veer throughout the day, becoming ENE by late afternoon.
The boundary will stall offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday
and will be the focus for shower and storm chances through the
end of the week. Weak winds are expected through the remainder
of the week, becoming E/NE overnight and veering slightly during
the day; SE around 10 knots, increasing to near 15 knots along
the coastal sea breeze.





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