Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 130705
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
305 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north for the remainder of
the week keeping temperatures below normal. More seasonable
weather sets up early next week as the high progresses offshore
and winds are allowed to turn more southerly.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unseasonably chilly air for mid May continues to stream southward
across the Carolinas beneath a cold upper trough. Temps at 850 mb as
cold as +5C are below the climatological 10th percentile according
to the SPC sounding climatology webpage. Temps at 500 mb should sink
below -20C by this evening across SE North Carolina, only a few
degrees away from coolest ever observed here this late in the spring.

Low clouds have diminished rather rapidly overnight as drier air
punched in from the north. Skies should become mostly sunny today
with only some subtropical jet cirrus affecting the beaches at
times. Highs are expected to reach the low 70s inland and upper 60s
near the coast, 10 to 12 degrees below normal. Northeast winds
should die down to 5 mph overnight, allowing a radiational inversion
to develop. Forecast lows are mainly 45-50, warmest along the
beaches, but some of the normal cold spots across inland SE North
Carolina could fall to 40.

Light northeast winds will continue on Friday as the cold pool aloft
settles overhead. Even with dewpoints in the upper 30s there may be
some cumulus developing inland at the top of the mixed layer. Some
models develop convective showers across northern and central North
Carolina, but few bring any activity into our area. There is some
diversity in the southern boundary of the coldest 700/500 mb temps,
so we`ll watch this potential closely to see if shower chances need
to be introduced across Lumberton or Bennettsville. Friday`s highs
are expected to reach 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cool and dry advection Friday night as high pressure builds in from
the north and mid level flow is out of the northwest. Not much
changes heading into Saturday and Saturday night though the CAA does
weaken considerably, almost to neutral. Both periods will thus be
rain-free and cloud-free but the earlier CAA and shallow mixing will
still foster below climo temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure sliding offshore will allow a warm front to develop
and lift across the area on Sunday. Some guidance has implied that
some light rain is possible as this occurs but the solutions that
show that the boundary needs to strengthen to our north before rain
breaks out more appealing. A low amplitude mid level ridge builds in
from the west on Monday while the surface ridge remains offshore.
Small rain chances return Tuesday as low pressure developing off the
Delmarva coast pushes a front southward. This boundary will still be
nearby on Wednesday making a dry forecast hard to go with but the
continued building of the ridge will keep rain chances low. After a
slightly cooler than normal Sunday most of the long term will be
quite seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model and observational trends have shifted toward a much
faster clearing of low clouds out of the area, and VFR
conditions are now expected to dominate for the next 24 hours.
Drier air is punching in from the north and northeast. The only
sub-VFR conditions currently forecast is temporary MVFR ceilings
possible now through 08-09z at CRE and MYR.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday...Minimal Small Craft Advisory conditions appear they
may continue across the outer portion of the 0-20 mile coastal
waters zones through at least tonight, perhaps even lingering into
Friday morning. A cold front extending from central Florida out to
near Bermuda will continue to slide slowly south over the next 36
hours. Northeast 15-25 kt winds are mainly being caused by a tight
pressure gradient between a wave of low pressure on the front and
high pressure moving east across the midwest states. Model
confidence in the overall pattern is high. Dominant wave periods of
7-8 seconds will continue, aligned with the wind.

Friday night through Monday.... Wind to remain out of the NE Friday
night as high pressure builds to our north. Seas will remain a bit
agitated/elevated in size from the strong NNE fetch between the high
and an area of low pressure well offshore-though no advisory flags
anticipated. As the center of the high approaches Saturday winds
will veer and decrease in speed. There will also be a downward trend
in wave height as the aforementioned low pulls away. Light winds
then in store for Sunday as the high progresses eastward, this
motion further turning our winds in a clockwise direction. One final
veer slated for Monday as the surface pattern continues to
progress.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ILM
MARINE...ILM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.