Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 131913
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
313 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the western Atlantic will maintain southerly
winds, along with seasonably warm and humid conditions. Weak low
pressure tracking northward will produce greater coverage of
storms into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure along the NC coast will continue to track northward
tonight into Friday. A trough is trailing from this low cutting
through our forecast area from NE to SW. Associated convection
was tracking S-SE across SE NC this aftn. Should see most of
the activity rotating around through the area, taper off once
daytime heating cuts off, and increasing over the waters
overnight in a more offshore flow. The low should continue to
lift northeastward toward Delmarva coast through Fri but trough
will linger as mid to upper trough west of the area deepens and
slowly migrates eastward. These features plus a deep feed of
moisture with pcp water values up over 2 inches, will allow for
another active day on Fri with increased convective activity
and cloud cover. Temps will be modified by clouds and rainfall,
but basically expect warm and humid weather to continue with max
temps up within a few degrees of 90 and overnight lows in the
mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level trough axis will be to our west through the period. This
should enhance convective coverage above their climatological norms
while still preserving a fairly normal diurnal curve. Activity might
be concentrated inland first under the lowered heights/cooler mid
level air at first. Later day focus then shifts to the coast along
the sea breeze. Temperatures will be close to normal for the most
part, though an early enough storm initiation could shave a few
degrees off highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level trough continues to be in place on Sunday while at the
surface a cool front drops into the area. Thunderstorms should be
fairly widespread in coverage with no particular locale being
favored over another. Monday appears to offer lower coverage of
storms as the trough weakens but the mid week period will shift back
to being quite unsettled as another takes its place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VCSH and VCTS much of this 18Z TAF cycle, generally isolated to
scattered in coverage, but impacting most terminals this
afternoon. Convection is starting to kickoff in the Cape Fear
region as well as more inland near KFLO, allowing for MVFR/IFR
restrictions in and around storms. Convection settles down after
sunset. Pretty confident about fog/low stratus building in
during the overnight hours, especially inland. Think KFLO/KLBT
could start to see fog around 07-08Z, and could be low MVFR to
IFR. Coastal terminals could start to see fog around 08-09Z, but
think it`ll be more MVFR. Fog along the coast may not actually
materialize as much due to higher wind speeds in the lower
levels of the atmosphere, per model guidance. Fog should mix out
by 13-14Z. Convection starts to initialize again towards the
end of the period.

Extended Outlook...TSTMs, isolated to scattered will continue
through the extended period. Patches of morning fog generally
between 8z-11z should be expected, or localized MVFR stratus.
Winds outside of TSTMs should remain light, and southerly.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will shift northward along the Carolina coast
reaching the Delmarva coast on Fri producing a more offshore
flow overnight into early Fri, especially over NC waters.
Overall, expect southerly flow veering a little more westerly
overnight and back to SW by Fri aftn. Winds should run in the 10
to 15 kt range, but higher gusts, mainly in thunderstorms. Seas
in the 2 to 4 ft range will increase slightly through late Fri
into Fri night in SW push. A slightly longer period SE swell,
around 1 to 2 ft up to 9 seconds will mix with shorter period
wind waves.

Wind will be out of the southwest over the weekend as high pressure
sits offshore and a frontal boundary stalls to our west. There is
some uncertainty as to where this front ends up by Monday. Right now
it appears to drift into at least part of our coastal waters
bringing lighter and more variable flow. Just after the forecast
period some weak swell energy from TS Josephine may start
arriving.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...MBB/RGZ



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