698
FXUS62 KILM 120131
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
931 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather is expected through mid week as Canadian
high pressure builds in from the north. Humidity and rain
chances will increase Thursday, Friday, and this weekend as
moisture spreads north over the Southeast. A possible
subtropical storm could impact the area early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
01Z surface analysis shows the center of surface high pressure
offshore of New England, with an axis extending SW across the
Mid-Atlantic states into the NC Piedmont and upstate SC. A
moderate gradient is in place across the forecast area, which
will maintain a northeast breeze on the order of 5-10 kt
overnight. Extensive high cloudiness will continue to overspread
the area from the SW. Have tweaked hourly temps in line with
observations, but no other significant changes are necessary
with the evening update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Quiet weather continues through Thursday with sfc high pressure
still centered off to the NE and deep-layer moisture meager despite
increasing high clouds. Sfc winds out of the ENE at 10-15 mph,
gusting at times near the coast Thursday midday/aftn. Any rain
chances will hold off until Thursday night or Friday when more
favorable moisture profiles move into the area, but sprinkles are
possible until then Thursday aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The high-pressure ridge that has been in control continues to
shift northward, with the remnants of Francine remaining to the
west. The northeast flow will be well established, with the cold
front remaining to the south. A coastal trough will developed
off the coast late Thursday into Friday. As the trough develops,
the chances of rain will increase from the east and spread to
the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models continue to develop a low along a stationary front off
the Southeast United Coast. It will slowly strengthen. Possibly
developing into a subtropical (tropical) system late Sunday into
Monday. The low will shift back to the northwest, with the
blocking high to the north. The 12Z UTC runs of the
deterministic models show the center of the low moving onshore
in the Carolinas. Stay Tuned. Expect a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms, each with an increased opportunity late
Sunday into Tuesday. Highs will be in the lower 80s most of the
time for the period, with lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The center of surface high pressure has shifted off the New
England coast, with ENE winds continuing across the area. The
high center will move very slowly to the east, resulting in
continued ENE winds through Thursday. Clouds will thicken and
lower through Thursday as moisture increases through the column,
but VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Chances for rain and MVFR/IFR conditions
increase Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday, ENE winds of 15-20 kt this period with sfc
high pressure locked in place off to the NE. Seas 3-5 tonight,
build to 4- 6 ft Thursday when a SCA is still in effect. The sea
state will predominantly be easterly waves at 6-8 seconds.

Thursday Night through Monday, A trough of low pressure
continues along the coastal waters on Thursday, and high
pressure will ridge along the Appalachians. On Friday night, a
low-pressure area will develop along a stationary front well off
the east coast of Florida. This low will slowly strengthen into
a possible subtropical storm. The northeast winds are expected
to be 15 to 20 knots and increase to 25 knots Sunday night. Seas
of 4 to 6 feet on Thursday night are expected to build to 8 to
10 north of Cape Fear and 6 to 8 feet south of Cape Fear. A
Small Craft Advisory is likely throughout the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: There will be a Moderate to High risk of
rip currents for east to southeast facing beaches Thursday
through early next week. In addition, will see a strong East to
West longshore current across south facing beaches Thursday.
This may expand to strong north to south longshore currents
across all other beaches Friday through the weekend. All of this
due to increasing onshore NE-E winds and building Easterly swell
impacting local beaches through this weekend and into early
next week.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for NCZ106-108.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for SCZ056.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through
     Thursday evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...21/RH
AVIATION...MAS/CRM
MARINE...MAS/RH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...