398
FXUS62 KILM 120949
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
549 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier high pressure will bring mainly rain-free and increasingly
warmer weather through the week. A moisture-starved cold front
will pass through over the weekend bringing temperatures and
humidity down a bit for early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track for a warm day with sunshine mixing with
mainly high clouds across the area.

Aviation Discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will extend in from the north as it migrates eastward
reaching the Delmarva coast late today. This will produce a light
easterly return flow around the base of the high through tonight.
Aside from a few afternoon cu and high clouds streaming across the
area, there should be plenty of sunshine with a dry airmass in
place. Pcp water values remain around an inch. Not expecting much in
the way of fog with boundary layer winds increasing into Thurs
morning. Temps will reach up into the mid to upper 80s once again
with sea breeze developing this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in
the mid 60s to around 70 closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: Weak low pressure not too far to the south and east of the
area should track off to the northeast staying far offshore while
high pressure prevails inland. A cold front should be approaching SE
NC later Friday night. Little to no impacts are expected from the
low as it mostly remains dry, although a few showers can`t be ruled
out near the coast into early Friday. Temps should be near normal
through Thursday night and then become above normal Friday and
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
*Very low risk for significant weather

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details: A very weak cold front, more or less just a wind
shift, should move through Saturday followed by high pressure
from the north through early next week. Limited moisture should
equate to very low rain chances through the period. Saturday
still looks pretty hot due to the compressional heating from the
front with mid to upper 90s likely, warmest in SC. Heat indices
should peak in the mid 90s to lower 100s so a Heat Advisory is
not anticipated. Temps/humidity should fall a bit early next
week but temps are likely to still be near to a bit above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR expected through the period. Light easterly winds will
persist as center of high shifts off of the Delmarva coast
through this evening. The afternoon sea breeze will enhance the
onshore flow a bit and then the gradient will tighten heading
into Thurs with a slight increase in easterly winds. Expect few
to sct aftn cu remaining fairly flat with some higher cirrus
mixing in. With increase in boundary layer winds tonight and
high clouds, do not expect any fog.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure will extend down into the waters
from the north. As the center migrates toward the Delmarva coast
later today and then offshore into Thurs, an easterly return flow
will persist, but remain light. Any thunderstorm activity will
remain well east and south associated with old frontal boundary.
Gradient will start to tighten tonight into Thurs as low begins to
start developing along old frontal boundary off the Southeast coast.
Therefore winds will increase from 5 to 10 kts this morning up to 10
to 15 tonight. This will push seas up a bit from less than 3 ft up
to 3 to 4 ft with some 5 fter in the outer waters.

Thursday through Sunday... to be Weak low pressure should pass
not too far off to the east through Friday with a fairly weak
cold front moving through Saturday. High pressure will then
build from the north. Although winds/seas will pick up a bit due
to the passage of the low and subsequent slightly cooler and
drier air mass, we don`t expect the need for a Small Craft
Advisory.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ