216
FXUS63 KIWX 091907
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rather cool by June standards Monday with highs in the 60s
  (coolest near the lake).

- Temperatures slowly warm through the upcoming week, with well
  above normal conditions arriving this weekend.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Thursday
  night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Overall a rather tranquil several days in store for the area as
high pressure dominates. A cold front will drop south tonight
into Monday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of colder air
as well as increasing low clouds that may very well persist
through much of Monday as strong CAA settles in. Previous highs
were rather warm compared to much of the guidance with many of
the models only having highs in the 60s and maybe upper 50s
along the lake. Collaboration has resulted in lowering of highs,
but also trying to account for the possibilty of clearing in
the afternoon and the June sun offsetting some of the impacts of
the CAA. It may be a bit breezy in some areas as well,
especially closer to the lake.

The cold air will be short lived as ridging moves in with
temperatures closer to normal Tuesday followed by above normal
(well into the 80s) for the rest of the period. A weak front
will bring a chance of showers and maybe a few storms, but
overall confidence is low given deeper moisture will still
reside well south of the region.

Trends still suggest that the upper level ridge will strengthen
further this weekend into next week with highs in the upper 80s
to possibly low 90s settling in. Dewpoints will remain in check
initially with heat indices a few degrees warmer than forecasted
highs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

The passage of a cold frontal boundary brought times of low
visibility and stratus this morning. We`ll continue to be in a cold
advection regime behind this front through the forecast period. One
additional cold frontal boundary moves through Monday in a similar
time to this morning`s and could allow for another period of what
appears to be more of a stratus-conducive environment with sustained
winds forecast to be greater than 5kts Monday morning. Early
projections look like MVFR CIGs will be in play with near 30 percent
chances on the SREF at SBN and to some extent at FWA as well.
There`s also some question how long these can continue into the
daytime Monday after today`s dissipated around sunrise. Aviation
guidance still wants to hold onto the CIGs later than that. Wind
gusts could increase again Monday midday, but may not be as strong
as they are expected to be into this evening with a weaker low level
jet.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 9 PM CDT this evening through
     Monday evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 PM EDT this evening through
     Monday evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller